Trey Lance's Draft Position Odds: Expect the QB to go six or higher

With the 2021 NFL Draft rapidly approaching, there are still many things that have yet to be figured out.

One of the bigger headlines recently was the San Francisco 49ers trading all the way up to the No. 3 pick. Many analysts have claimed that they’re hearing around the league that Mac Jones is potentially going to be their guy, but to others, it’s hard to envision San Francisco trading all the way up to three to get the quarterback that was projected to go the lowest of all of the big names.

While trying to project exactly where players are going to go can be rewarding, one thing I’ve had luck with in the past is players’ draft position. So with that, let’s get into one of my favorite props available.

Trey Lance Under 6.5 +101

I like Lance. I’m not sure if it’s because I went to a Missouri Valley Conference school, or the magical zero turnovers number he had in his lone season as a starter (excluding the one-game “showcase”), but I like Lance a lot, and I know NFL general managers do too. 

He’s arguably one of the most pro-ready players of the quarterback bunch, as roughly 90 percent of his snaps were taken from under center. I’m also of the idea that, wherever he lands, he won’t be the starter  right away. He would be a perfect fit for a Kyle Shanahan offense with plenty of play-action throws and utilizing his athleticism to make throws on the run.

The 49ers will also have Jimmy Garoppolo under contract next season, and wouldn’t be surprised if they try to showcase him to boost his trade value for when they inevitably go with the heir apparent, no matter who it is.

If the buzz around Jones to San Francisco proves to be more than that, and they do indeed take him third overall, Atlanta is also a good landing spot for Lance. They still have Matt Ryan under contract and still have a pair of talented receivers in Calvin Ridley, who started to look more like a No. 1 receiver last year, as well as Julio Jones.

I don’t think the Falcons plan on being in this type of draft position again, and the last time they were, they took third overall.

Mel Kiper Jr’s latest mock draft had Atlanta trading down to No. 6 with the Miami Dolphins, but still took Lance with the pick. Of some of the bigger and plugged-in names in the mock draft world, only Todd McShay has Lance falling beyond No. 6. At just a penny over even odds to go sixth or sooner, I’ll gladly take that all day.