NFL Player Props: Trevor Lawrence to start his career well
The number one overall pick looks set to start the season in Jacksonville but can he live up to the hype? With a number of 4150.5 yards set as the over/under by the Sportsbooks, Neil Monnery is still bullish on his prospects...
Unless you’ve been living under a rock (or just aren’t a fan of college football) then you’ll already know a fair bit about Trevor Lawrence. The number one overall pick will suit up for the Jacksonville Jaguars and having been the top recruit coming out of high school according to the 247Sports composite - this 21 year-old has been one of the most storied QBs to have come through the collegiate ranks.
ESPN Draft Guru Mel Kiper Jr. graded the former Clemson Tiger has the fourth best player at the position he’s ever evaluated being Hall of Famers John Elway and Peyton Manning along with Andrew Luck - who seemed destined for greatness before injuries and early retirement scuttled his career.
Personally speaking, I am a huge fan of Lawrence. He can make all the throws, has a superb mentality and also isn’t afraid of running the ball. Whether he can be a superstar in year one is the big question mark as he comes into a setting that isn’t exactly ideal for a rookie.
The Jaguars have stunk for quite a long time now. They have not developed a QB since David Garrard to be better than league average. Blaine Gabbart was a dud, Blake Bortles was vastly overrated and whilst Gardner Minshaw did better than expected, he was never going to be the face of the franchise. Lawrence will be but does the new coaching structure help him?
What does help him is the consistency they have coming back in the o-line room. All five starters return from last season and keeping their rookie Quarterback upright in the pocket will be a key part of their remit going into the season. If Lawrence gets time in the pocket to go through his progressions then they have every chance of putting up numbers.
DJ Chark, Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault for me are a really good starting wide receiving corps. I don’t see a clear WR1 among them but all three would be a good WR2 on most teams. With Travis Etienne being a bag of tricks coming out of the backfield, you could easily see his fellow Clemson rookie getting 500 yards receiving.
The over/under number has been set at 4150.5 yards, which would average out at 245 yards a game if Lawrence starts every encounter of this 17-game campaign. I like him to steadily improve as the season goes on and with the Jags potentially behind in many games late, they’ll go to the air a great deal. Two or three 400+ yard games wouldn’t stun me so I’m going all in on the number one pick to flash in Jacksonville.
Pick: Over on the Trevor Lawrence passing yards market (4150.5 yards) at -112.