Thursday Night Football Prop Bets: Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram Picks for Saints-Jaguars in Week 7
Star quarterback Trevor Lawrence seems to be trending toward playing in the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints in Week 7.
That’s a big deal when it comes to the victor of this game, as I like the Jaguars in an upset.
It will also affect the prop bet action. There are no prop bets for Lawrence currently available but there are for Jacksonville’s skill players.
I’m leaning in, feeling like I’m getting some value on a couple of them provided Lawrence does take the field. If he doesn’t? Godspeed to those wagers.
Here are the three prop bet picks for the Thursday Night Football game between the Jaguars and Saints.
Prop Bet Pick: Jaguars WR Christian Kirk Over/Under 50.5 Receiving Yards
Kirk has been really good since a super-quiet opener. He is averaging 6.4 catches and 75 yards per game in his past five. Kirk has been a big-play machine, averaging 11.7 yards per catch in that span.
I’m not totally sold on him surpassing the 4.5 receptions over/under and prefer to roll with the yardage prop, because he could still get there with four catches.
Calvin Ridley may see a lot of Marshon Lattimore in this game, which should give Kirk some opportunities to see a nice number of targets. I envision another solid showing, which will include more than 50 receiving yards.
Prediction: Christian Kirk over 50.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Prop Bet Pick: Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley Over/Under 4.5 Receptions
So, yes, I just got done saying that Ridley has a tough matchup against Lattimore, but the over as the underdog play has me intrigued.
Ridley has had a tough time converting targets into catches this season, doing so at a rate of only 59.1%, which is on pace to be a career low. However, he has been targeted 44 times in six games, so the chances are there, and he has averaged five catches per game in his career.
The Jaguars won’t have Zay Jones in this one, so Ridley might get force-fed at times. If he catches a couple quick slants, bubble screens, etc., this bet will be set up for success, at a great price point.
Prediction: Calvin Ridley over 4.5 receptions (-105 at DraftKings)
Prop Bet Pick: Jaguars TE Evan Engram Over/Under 42.5 Receiving Yards
Engram has put together a really nice season and has finally capitalized on his potential in Jacksonville after failing to do so with the Giants.
He is averaging 7.3 targets, 6.0 catches and 50.2 receiving yards per game this season, but I’m not sure he reaches any of those in this matchup.
Engram is the third option through the air behind Ridley and Kirk, and this doesn’t project to be the highest-scoring affair. The Saints are giving up the fifth-fewest passing yards per game in the NFL this season as the defense is stout.
Tyrann Mathieu is one of the better coverage defensive backs in the league and he will often match up against tight ends. He has only allowed 137 receiving yards on 22 targets all year, which isn’t great news if Engram is his main matchup.
Additionally, Engram is hauling in 81.8% of the targets thrown his way this year, compared to 65% for his career. Regression could be coming, and I don’t think he gets to 43 receiving yards in this game.
Prediction: Jaguars tight end Evan Engram under 42.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
- Prop Bets Last Week: 3-6
- Overall: 28-22
