Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills: Week 8 NFL Predictions, Picks and Odds for TNF

The Buffalo Bills might be the highest-variance team in the NFL, blowing out a Super Bowl contender one week and then struggling against basement-dwellers the next.

Despite a rocky 4-3 start to the season, the oddsmakers still have plenty of faith in them, evidenced by the Bills being more than touchdown favorites against the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football in Week 8.

Here is a look at the betting lines, according to BetMGM on October 25th.

Spread: Bills -8.5
Moneyline: Bills -450; Buccaneers +340
Scoring Total: 43 points

Will the Bills bounce back with a blowout win, or will it be a struggle following a close win over the Giants and a stunning loss to the Patriots the past two weeks?

The advanced metrics still like Buffalo, and I have reservations about Baker Mayfield going up against this defense. The Bills haven’t rewarded bettors’ faith of late but I’m taking them to both win this game and cover the spread.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Prediction

The Bucs are a wonderfully mediocre football team. They are 3-3 on the season with a point-differential of negative-1. The defense is ranked No. 12 in the NFL in efficiency while the offense is No. 24.

Mayfield has had a solid start to the season but his track record suggests regression could be on the horizon. I would not be surprised if the Bills made him turnover-prone in this contest. Mayfield has thrown an interception in each of his past four games.

The Bills are No. 3 in offensive efficiency but quarterback Josh Allen hasn’t been a star in recent outings. Buffalo needs that from him to return to Super Bowl contention, and this is a tough task against a strong Tampa Bay defense.

I don’t think we will see an offensive explosion from Buffalo, but as long as Allen takes care of the ball, the Bills have enough playmakers to eventually pull away in this one.

Prediction: Bills 23, Buccaneers 13

Prop Bet Pick: Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield Over/Under 21.5 Pass Completions

Mayfield has thrown the ball a decent amount this season, in part because Tampa Bay’s rushing attack has been putrid at 3.1 yards per game. The Buccaneers don’t want that to happen here, and will likely try anything to get the ground game rolling.

Mayfield is a bottom-tier NFL starter, and exposing him to a bunch of dropbacks against the Bills is not a good idea.

I expect the game-plan to be conservative, and for Mayfield to have trouble connecting with receivers when he does throw the ball. This is the slight underdog side of the play and I’ll take it.

Prediction: Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield under 21.5 pass completions (-105 at BetMGM)

How to Watch Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 26th, 2023 at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The game can be seen on Amazon Video.