NFL Player Props: Can he Dig(gs) it in year two in Buffalo?
What a first year in Buffalo Stefon Diggs had and the Sportsbooks have set his receiving yards number at 1400.5 for Prop Bet purposes. Neil Monnery thinks its a fair number but does he lean over or under...?
It would be fair to say that the breakout year from Stefon Diggs up in Buffalo came as a bit of a surprise to most. I remember going into the season, Josh Allen was seen as the biggest fantasy bust among QBs and if he took a step back then how would newcomer Diggs do?
A few months later and the vast majority of those question marks have well and truly been consigned to the skip. Josh Allen continued to show off his rocket arm but seemed to add extra accuracy and Stefon Diggs stretched the field and became an extremely reliable set of hands. The Buffalo Bills were legitimately in the mix to win it all and Diggs was a huge part of that.
The 27 year-old had put up nice numbers in Minnesota but never seemed to be the guy up in the Twin Cities. The move to upstate New York changed all that as he very quickly became the top skill position player on the roster.
It didn’t take long for the former Maryland Terrapin to forge a good connection with his new QB. Three 100+ yard games in the first five games of the season, which included 36 catches for 509 yards. He backed that up with three more 100+ yard games in his final four games of the regular season.
In 2020 it was clear he was playing with a chip on his shoulder but now he goes into the 2021 campaign as one of the best receivers in the game. Does that motivation level drop at all? That is a small concern I have in the back of my mind as in terms of pure athletic ability including pace and power, I can’t think of a better receiver in the league.
So all signs point to me going for the over doesn’t it? I’m actually going the other way. I have no doubts whatsoever that Diggs can clear the 1400.5 yard mark with consummate ease. He took in 127 catches for 1,535 in 15 starts in 2020 but that was a big career high. Previously he’d topped out at 1,130 in 2019. Averaging 83 yards a game is a big ask and it needs him to play every single game at that pace.
Emmanuel Sanders could help out Josh Allen in big third down moments and I think Diggs’ target numbers go down slightly. Cole Beasley keeps getting better as well as WR3 so Josh Allen will have plenty of reliable players to pick out.
I fully expect Diggs to have another fantastic season but I’m leaning towards taking the under on 1400.5 receiving yard prop market.
Pick: Under on the Stefon Diggs receiving yards market (1400.5 yards) at -124.