NFL Player Props: Bet the over on Gronk one more time

The Sportsbooks (along with fantasy drafts) seem to be down on Rob Gronkowski heading in the 2021 NFL season but with his over/under number set at 500.5 yards - Neil Monnery sees potential profit by believing in #87...

When Rob Gronkowski finally hangs up his spikes, he’ll be waiting just a few short years before getting the call for the NFL Hall of Fame. Of course he has already retired once having sat out of the 2019 season following winning Super Bowl LIII with the Patriots. That year-long break ended when Tom Brady left New England as a Free Agent and the two of them reunited in Tampa Bay.

The 32 year-old wasn’t back to his prime last year after that hiatus but he certainly was far better than many may have thought. 45 catches were caught for a grand total of 623 receiving yards. His blocking ability was still strong and whilst 1,000 plus yard seasons are likely in the rear view mirror, when the Sportsbooks set his over/under number at 500.5 yards my eyes lit up.

Tom Brady and Bruce Arians will surely be more in sync this upcoming season. It took the two of them time to build up a rapport and understanding. Even as they did this they were able to go and win the Super Bowl. Mike Evans and Chris Goswin are two outstanding receivers still very much in their prime. Also Antonio Brown is a very trusty veteran who still has plenty to offer.

Just in the Tight End room, the Buccaneers have OJ Howard coming back from injury and the very steady and reliable Cameron Brate. So Brady will have plenty of weapons to use and that does cause one potential issue - will Gronk see enough targets to clear that 500 yard mark?

I’m very much of the opinion that he will. Brady has a history of just finding the open man and for Gronk to get over that 500 yard mark - he just needs to average 30 yards a game for the 17-game season. That seems more than plausible. No doubt he'll have a handful of sluggish games receiving but he’ll also have three or four where he’s a big part of the offense. The way he runs the seam route alone is good for a handful of 20-30 yard gains.

Remember this. He’s never not got more than 500 yards receiving in a season. He might not be the player he once was but I never discount the spirit of this player. I like the over.

Pick: Over on the Rob Gronkowski receiving yards market (500.5 yards) at +100.