Pittsburgh Steelers Over/Under Wins Odds 2021: Trust in Big Ben one more time
The Pittsburgh Steelers were one of the bigger disappointments in 2020 but with a lowly 8.5 over/under number - that gives plenty of betting opportunities to attack the over writes Zach Rainey...
The Pittsburgh Steelers are one of the toughest teams to evaluate for me going into the 2021-22 season.
On one side, the Steelers were absolutely rolling and were undefeated heading into Week 13.
From there, the Steelers went 1-4. Ben Roethlisberger’s stats fell off a cliff, as a result, so did the rest of the offense.
What I’m left to try and figure out is whether this year’s Steelers team will resemble the Steelers from the first 11 games or the last five.
Even with the late-season collapse, the team still managed to make the playoffs, where they fell to Cleveland 48-37. I’ll give Pittsburgh credit, they never gave up in that game. They fell behind 28-0 and were down 35-10 at halftime.
I liked the resilience, but not sure if it was because Cleveland let their guard down a little bit. Big Ben finished 47-for-68 passing with 501 yards, four touchdowns and four picks. If you’re a Big 12 school, you might have a chance to still win with those numbers. The NFL? A little different.
Many thought Juju Smith-Schuster would find a new team in free agency this year. While I still have my concerns of whether he is a legitimate No. 1 receiver, I think he can still be a 1,000-yard guy in this offense. Chase Claypool opened some eyes last year. He got into a little bit of trouble in the offseason, but I think they’ll be able to turn that round.
More than anything else, the Steelers needed a running back. They addressed that need with their first draft pick, selecting Alabama’s Najee Harris. There will surely be questions about their offensive line after Pouncey retired
The important thing is that hopefully Big Ben won’t have to throw the ball upwards of 25-40 times per game. If that’s the case again this year, I think the same late-season fall off could be on the horizon again.
As has been the case, the Steelers will rely on their defense yet again. T.J. Watt put up numbers comparable, and in some cases better than Aaron Donald last year and has a legitimate case to become the NFL Defensive Player of the Year again. With Cameron Heyward still being a force on the line, I still think the Steelers will be able to overpower teams up front.
Devin Bush is one of the game’s best young linebackers. He flies around the field in a way Ryan Shazier used to. I think Bush’s skillset and athleticism is comparable to Devin White, who became a household name with Tampa Bay on their Super Bowl run.
Joe Haden as the team’s best corner at 32-years old is slightly concerning to me, but with how sound the defensive is everywhere else, I think Mike Tomlin and Co. will be able to work around that. It also helps having guys like Terrell Edmunds and Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety.
I have the Steelers falling in Week 1, as Buffalo will likely be a trendy pick to come out of the AFC.
The Vegas game will be close in Week 2, but I think the defense will be able to throw enough things at Carr to make him uncomfortable and win.
They’ll earn a win against the Bengals in Week 1 before heading to Green Bay in Week 4. If the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, I’m marking this as a loss. If they don’t this will have been the best defense Jordan Love (or Blake Bortles) had played to his point and I think they fall.
I think they earn wins against Denver and Seattle before heading into the Bye at 4-2.
They’ll fall on the road to division rival Cleveland in Week 8, but pick up wins in Week 9 on Monday Night Football against the Bears and week 10 against the Detroit Lions.
They then take on the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11 on Sunday Night Football and I think they’ll fall in that game. They’ll beat Cincinnati in Week 12 and I think take the home game against Baltimore in Week 13.
Week 14 at Minnesota will be a defensive showdown on Thursday Night Football and I’ll take the Steelers in what I have as a 50/50 game, giving the edge to the Steelers if not only because of Cousins’ prime time track record. I have the game against the Titans as a 50/50 game too. I’ll lean toward Pittsburgh as the home team.
They’ll fall at Kansas City in Week 16 the day after Christmas, but rebound with a win over Cleveland on Monday Night Football in Week 17. Week 18 will be close at Baltimore but I think Baltimore pulls that one out, splitting the season series.
Maybe I’m just too high on Tomlin and this defense, but I have the Steelers for anywhere between nine and 11 wins, it will just depend on how the 50/50 games shake out. With their projection at 8.5, I’ll take the over.
