New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Picks & Best Bets: NFL Prediction Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends

The New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers have long been two of the model NFL franchises, but neither is in the midst of dominance. Pittsburgh is currently in line to make the playoffs but has a negative point-differential and serious offensive question marks, especially now that starting quarterback Kenny Pickett is on the shelf with an injury.

The Patriots have been among worst teams in the league this year, also because of an anemic offense, which is shocking considering they have Bill Belichick at the helm.

New England is in a rare situation where a loss would be preferable to a win, as it would help cement the team’s spot near the top of the draft order. 

The Steelers are solid favorites to win this game at home despite the absence of Pickett, and the scoring total is hilariously low.

Check out my prediction along with some intriguing prop bets below for Patriots vs. Steelers on Thursday Night Football.

• Game Date: Thursday, December 7th, 2023
• Game Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Spread: Steelers -6
• Moneyline: Steelers -275; Patriots +210
• Scoring Total: 30 points
• Location: Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video

Our New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Picks & Predictions

New England Patriots to cover the spread

• Seven of New England’s 10 losses have come by a touchdown or less
• The Patriots’ defense is a major strength despite the bad offense
• The Steelers have a negative-37 point-differential on the season

Total Points Over 30

• The drop-off from Kenny Pickett to Mitchell Trubisky is negligible, and the Steelers have enough playmakers to put up some points
• There could be a defensive touchdown or a turnover in good field position to help boost the scoring
• It will be cold in Pittsburgh on Thursday but there is only a small chance of rain or windy conditions

Patriots vs. Steelers Moneyline Odds

Our Player Prop Picks for Patriots vs. Steelers

Steelers RB Jaylen Warren Over 42.5 Rushing Yards

• Warren has 48 or more rushing yards in each of his past five games
• He is averaging an NFL-best 5.9 yards per carry and is beginning to siphon more carries from Najee Harris
• The Steelers should be ahead in this game, which will give them a favorable game script for rushing attempts

Steelers QB Mitchell Trubisky over 180.5 Passing Yards

• Trubisky was 11-of-17 for 117 yards and a touchdown in relief of Pickett last week
• The Steelers have a pair of explosive wideouts in George Pickens and Diontae Johnson, while Jaylen Warren is a great checkdown option

Steelers WR Allen Robinson under 1.5 receptions

• Robinson had three catches last week but only nine in his past seven games
• Trubisky will likely target his top receivers in the passing game
• Trubisky’s mobility and the expected defensive nature of this game could cut down on the number of pass attempts