Odegard: Kyler Murray the Best Value Bet in the NFL to Win 2024 MVP

I was perusing NFL betting odds earlier this week — you know, since it’s my job and all — and something caught my eye.

Christian McCaffrey has +3500 odds to win the 2024 MVP, while Kyler Murray is listed at +5000.

It makes sense that both are relative longshots to win the award, but a running back ahead of one of the more naturally talented quarterbacks in the NFL?

That’s bogus. And it’s also a betting opportunity.

A quarterback has won the NFL MVP 11 years running, and that’s not changing anytime soon.

McCaffrey led the NFL in yards from scrimmage (2,023) and touchdowns (21) in 2023 while averaging a robust 5.4 yards per carry, yet only finished third in the MVP voting in a down year for quarterbacks.

He’s the worthy Offensive Player of the Year favorite (+550 odds at DraftKings), but a quarterback is going to win MVP.

And while Murray doesn’t yet belong on the short-list of favorites to win the award, he’s certainly the best value among the group of quarterbacks he sits alongside.

Check out this grouping of MVP candidates and tell me which other one has enough high-end ability to win the league’s most prestigious individual award next season?

Odds to Win 2024 NFL MVP at DraftKings

• Anthony Richardson +3500
• Kirk Cousins +3500
• Jared Goff +4000
• Kyler Murray +5000
• Caleb Williams +5000
• Deshaun Watson +6000
• Justin Fields +6500
• Baker Mayfield +7500

Cousins and Goff have better situations, but have never shown they can play at a consistently elite level. Caleb Williams and Anthony Richardson have potential, but this is too big of an ask at the start of their careers.

Deshaun Watson? Baker Mayfield?!? Justin Fields?!?!? Please.

In fact, Murray looks like not only the best value among this group, but of any preseason MVP candidate.

Ready for me to make the case? Strap in.

First of all, the pedigree is there. Murray is a former No. 1 overall pick who had two impressive years to begin his career and then was the best quarterback in the NFL for the first half of his third season.

In his first nine games of that 2021 campaign, Murray led the NFL in yards per attempt (8.9), passer rating (112.2), completion percentage (72.7), touchdown percentage (7.0), adjusted yards per attempt (9.1), net yards per attempt (7.7), completion percentage over expectation (6.5) and EPA per play (.263).

And many of those numbers don’t factor in his electric rushing ability.

That was the peak of Murray’s career to this point, as 2021 fell apart, the start of 2022 was a massive struggle without DeAndre Hopkins, and then came the torn ACL.

But those paying close attention saw how Murray performed in the back half of 2023, on a non-descript Cardinals team that was wrapping up a forgettable year.

In the final three games, as Murray got more comfortable on his surgically repaired knee and more comfortable in an actual NFL-style offense, he averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt with six touchdowns and an interception for a passer rating of 108.3. 

He did that without the aforementioned Hopkins and without Hollywood Brown, who missed the last month due to injury. It was basically Trey McBride and three dudes from the local flag football league at wideout, and yet Murray led an offense that started cooking with gas.

Arizona averaged more than 400 yards of offense per game in that span, as the rushing attack was also stellar.

Murray didn’t run a ton but still averaged 5.9 yards per carry on the 15 totes he did have, while the threat of the keeper also made life advantageous for running back James Conner. Looking ahead, Murray's rushing explosiveness will only improve now that he will be more than a year-and-a-half past the ACL surgery when the 2024 season begins.

“(Players) can get back in nine months, 10 months now, from a recovery standpoint, but it really takes a year-and-a-half for guys to really be feeling good with it again,” Nic Hill, a performance trainer at Exos, said earlier this offseason when I asked him about ACL recovery.

So Murray should be in peak physical condition in 2024, and he’s entering his absolute athletic prime at age-27. 

The Cardinals have a very good set of bookends on the offensive line in Paris Johnson and Jonah Williams, while the interior of the line features Will Hernandez and could still be beefed up in the draft.

And then there is Marvin Harrison, Jr.

While it’s not a slam dunk the Cardinals stay at 4 and pick him, the odds still give it an implied probability of 66.7%, as he is the -200 odds-on favorite to land with the Cardinals at FanDuel.

My gut feeling is that Harrison to the Cardinals will happen.

And when you look back at the rookie seasons of stars like Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, it’s not out of the realm for MHJ to come in and produce a 1,300-yard season off the bat. McBride, meanwhile, will be one of the most dangerous tight ends in the NFL.

Are you with me yet?

A preternaturally talented quarterback, two legitimate offensive playmakers to find downfield, two solid tackles to protect him.

The Cardinals are projected to win only 6.5 games this season, so a lot must go right in order for them to finish with double-digit victories and give Kyler a legitimate MVP case.

But it’s possible.

And at 50/1 odds, it’s easy to see the upside.