NFL Week 3 Preview

Week 2 of the 2024 NFL regular season is in the rearview mirror, and what a week it was. There were massive upsets across the league, with multiple teams winning as underdogs of over a touchdown, while plenty more games came down to the wire and ended with one-possession victories. 

How will NFL Week 3 follow that madness? Well, it should begin with a compelling matchup on Thursday Night Football, as the New England Patriots head south to take on the New York Jets in a pivotal early-season AFC East clash.

NFL Week 3 Predictions

As we dive into the Week 3 slate head-on, it’s time to take a look at each of the games and target our three best bets for this weekend’s action. Our picks include a couple of underdogs — in keeping with the theme of this NFL season so far — plus a short road favorite that we trust to get the job done. Let’s get into our picks and best bets for NFL Week 3. 

Houston Texans -2.5 (-105) over Minnesota Vikings

The Houston Texans got a ton of buzz heading into the season, thanks to the tremendous success of quarterback CJ Stroud in his rookie campaign, plus the addition of Stefon Diggs as the #3 wide receiver in this talented and explosive offense. 

Houston has had serious expectations placed on it for the first time in years, but Stroud and company have lived up to the billing thus far, knocking off the Colts in a Week 1 thriller in Indianapolis, before traveling back home and handling business against Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears.

Houston's ground game has already proven to be a difference maker in this young season, which is a very encouraging sign for a Texans team that couldn’t run the ball at all a season ago.

While Houston is clearly one of the best teams in the AFC, this number for its Week 3 matchup against the Vikings is giving Minnesota a ton of respect for what its accomplished through two weeks. 

Sam Darnold has far exceeded any reasonable expectations thus far and the Vikings have been very impressive on both sides of the ball in wins over the Giants and 49ers, but this line seems like a bit of an overreaction considering that the lookahead line was shaded to the Texans at -4. 

Stroud should be comfortable getting the ball out quickly against a Vikings defense that blitzes more than almost any other team in the league, and look for Houston’s defensive front to create havoc for the third straight week in a winning effort. We’ll take the Texans to cover this short number at odds of -105 on Fanduel.

Denver Broncos +6.5 (-105) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

While watching this Denver Broncos offense can certainly feel like a chore sometimes, this is still one of the bigger overreaction lines on the Week 3 slate.

Tampa Bay is coming off a great win on the road over the Detroit Lions, but the win doesn’t exactly hold up very well when looking at the box score. After all, the Buccaneers were outgained by 12 first downs and a whopping 247 yards, but Detroit simply couldn’t finish in the red zone, as the Lions scored a touchdown on just one of their seven trips.

Now, it would be fair to expect a bit of a letdown from a 2-0 Buccaneers team as they head home for a non-conference game after exacting some revenge from last season’s playoff loss. It’s also important to remember that Tampa Bay is still dealing with a myriad of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the secondary. 

As for the Broncos, Bo Nix hasn’t been strong to start the season by any metric, but he does get to face a much weaker defense than what he saw a week ago with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Denver should be able to bottle up Tampa Bay’s offense, while the Broncos offense can get going against a defensive unit that just left everything on the field in a massive hype spot a week ago. Let’s take the Broncos to keep this game within a touchdown at odds of -105 on BetMGM.

Jacksonville Jaguars +5 (-110) vs Buffalo Bills

For our final pick on the Week 3 slate, we’ll be taking the Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 against the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football.

The Bills have adapted to life without Diggs just fine over the first two weeks of the season, and they’ve done it by running the ball efficiently and continuing to lean on Josh Allen to produce another elite offense. There’s no doubt that new offensive coordinator Joe Brady has made a huge difference in Buffalo’s style of play, and that success should continue all season long.

However, this isn’t a great spot for the Bills following a 31-10 blowout of the Miami Dolphins that was a lot closer in the box score than the scoreboard would indicate. In fact, if it wasn’t for a couple of poor turnovers from Tua Tagovailoa, the final score would undoubtedly look a lot different.

Now, in steps a desperate Jacksonville Jaguars team trying to avoid an 0-3 start. Jacksonville is far too talented to be in this position, and the Jaguars have also been pretty unlucky in their two losses to the Dolphins and Browns. 

The defense hasn’t been the problem, as Jacksonville has bottled up the Dolphins' offense and didn’t surrender much against Cleveland a week ago. Instead, the offense has struggled with inconsistency to this point. However, Trevor Lawrence will get to test a Bills linebacking group and secondary that has already dealt with a number of injuries early in the season. 

Jacksonville gave the Bills fits in London a season ago and while these teams aren’t exactly the same, we still lean toward a close, lower-scoring game on Monday Night Football in Buffalo. You can back the Jaguars +5 at odds of -110 over at Draftkings.

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