NFL Week 11 Preview | Expert Picks

Week 11 of the NFL season is upon us, and it begins with Thursday Night Football between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles in a humongous NFC East showdown. But if you think that game is big, check out Sunday’s lineup. It includes some marquee division rivalries with the Baltimore Ravens visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Seattle Seahawks facing the San Francisco 49ers. And then there’s the biggest game of the week – a possible AFC Championship preview featuring the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. Let’s take a look at some of the NFL best bets to be made for Week 11’s Sunday’s slate. 

NFL Week 11 Picks 

• Pick #1: Indianapolis Colts +3.5 over New York Jets (-110)
• Pick #2: New Orleans Saints -1 over Cleveland Browns (-108)
• Pick #3: Atlanta Falcons +2.5 over Denver Broncos (-112)

The Jets are without question the most disappointing team in the entire NFL this season and quite simply one of the worst. They are 3-7 following last week’s horrendous 31-6 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. This is absolutely a must-win spot for the Jets, but there is no reason to think they will respond well since the situation was pretty much the exact same against Arizona this past Sunday and we all saw how that turned out. Aaron Rodgers is 40 years old and playing like it. He averaged a season-low 4.3 yards per pass attempt in Week 10. It is true that the Colts (4-6) are nothing special, but they at least have a somewhat realistic chance of getting back into playoff contention if they win this weekend. Five of their losses have come to teams with winning records (Buffalo, the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings and Houston Texans twice). Five have also been by one possession. There is no way I’m giving more than a field goal with New York.

At 3-7, the Saints aren’t going anywhere in 2024. Nonetheless, they are playing for pride for an interim head coach and already returns are encouraging. In its first game with Darren Rizzi at the helm following the departure of Dennis Allen, New Orleans upset Atlanta 20-17 this past Sunday. Now the Saints get to stay at home and face a much softer opponent in the Browns. Cleveland is 2-7 and its offense has not looked much better with Jameis Winston at QB than it did with Deshaun Watson. Head coach Kevin Stefanski’s team has scored more than 18 points only once this entire year. Getting the Saints at a minuscule -1 spread looks to be a steal.

A competitive loss to the Kansas City Chiefs should not be enough to convince anyone that Denver is some kind of amazing football team. The 5-5 Broncos boast just one decent win in 2024, which came over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3. They have otherwise defeated the Jets, Saints, Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers. Generating offense has been a real struggle for head coach Sean Payton’s squad. It has scored a combined 24 points in the last two games and over the past three contests it has averaged 3.2, 4.1 and 3.4 yards per rushing attempt. Even with a stout defense, that probably won’t be enough to halt Atlanta’s high-powered offense. Kirk Cousins wasn’t at his best in a close loss at New Orleans in Week 10, but he is still on track to be Comeback Player of the Year. This matchup should really be a toss-up, so getting the Falcons +2.5 is a strong value play.

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