NFL Draft Betting: Oddsmakers Not Swayed By Dominant Michael Penix Jr. Showing in CFP Semifinal

Michael Penix, Jr. showed off his arm strength, deep ball touch and other traits in Washington’s College Football Semifinal win over Texas on Monday night.

But it wasn’t enough for oddsmakers to thrust him into the conversation to go No. 1 overall in the 2024 NFL draft.

Caleb Williams still has a vice grip on that spot, with -500 odds to be the first pick, per FanDuel on January 2nd. Drake Maye remains the only likely contender, sitting with +400 odds.

Penix had +5000 odds to be the No. 1 overall pick about a month ago and those are even longer now at +6000.

Here is a look at the odds of the 14 players listed to be the No. 1 pick, per FanDuel on January 2nd:

• Caleb Williams -500
• Drake Maye +400
• Marvin Harrison, Jr. +1500
• Jayden Daniels +3500
• Michael Penix Jr. +6000
• Joe Alt +8000
• Laiatu Latu +8000
• Jared Verse +8000
• Olu Fashanu +8000
• Bo Nix +10000
• J.C. Latham +10000
• Dallas Turner +10000
• J.J. McCarthy +10000
• Brock Bowers +10000

Penix went 29-of-38 for 430 yards and two touchdowns against the Longhorns in Monday’s 37-31 win. 

It reminded many of C.J. Stroud’s dominant semifinal showing a year ago against Georgia, which he then extrapolated into a great showing as an NFL rookie.

But the oddsmakers clearly aren’t reading that much into Penix’s great game, or a great season in which he has thrown for 4,648 yards and 35 touchdowns heading into the national championship game against Michigan.

The knocks on Penix are his injury history and his age, both of which may be significant enough to keep him out of the mix to be the No. 1 overall pick.

Michigan is a 4.5-point favorite in the national championship game, and the Huskies are not expected to dominate a very good Wolverines defense.

If Penix does so again, will that finally move the needle? He remains a longshot to be the No. 1 overall pick, and if Monday’s performance didn’t make a dent, maybe nothing can.