NFL Draft 2021: Lance moves to favorite for 3rd Overall Pick

I’ve never been a big follower of the stock market, but I haven’t seen a price drop like Mac Jones’ odds to go No. 3 overall in a long time.

Jones was at -335 just earlier this week, but with less than six hours before the start of the NFL Draft, both Jones and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance has now become the favorite at -150 to be the selection for San Francisco at No. 3 overall.

When the 49ers made the trade to move up to No. 3 overall, it was with Mac Jones in mind. But as the time has gone on, the more the team’s scouts and head coach Mike Shanahan and the more they got to do their deep dive, including meeting his parents at his pro day, the two have drawn closer in the odds.

For me, it’s how sharply and quickly the odds have moved. Jones was -205 just around Noon on the east coast, but has since moved to even odds. Analysts like Todd McShay, who in his last mock draft released today, changed his projection of Jones at No. 3 to Lance at No. 3, have learned something from somebody. I don’t believe that the odds would move that much if someone learned something.

Don’t forget oddsmakers and handicappers in Vegas have sources just like the media does, so it wouldn’t be surprising to me if someone there learned something to make them want to change the odds.

I had a stake in Jones at No. 3 at -175. But like stocks, once I saw the numbers moving, I hedged it with Lance, getting it at a price of +175.

I saw the numbers fluctuating with Jones earlier in the week and almost took a position on Ohio State’s Justin Fields. While the Jones numbers moved, Fields price moved even more, from +700, to +500 to +400 to go No. 3, with Lance’s price staying still at +300 until the following day.

It’ll be interesting to say the least to see who the 49ers go with, and is sure to be the moment when the draft gets interesting, especially as the 49ers will still be the subject of heavy discussion for the rest of the weekend in regards to what they do with Jimmy Garoppolo.

When asked about whether Garoppolo will be on the roster Sunday, Shanahan said that he “couldn’t guarantee anyone would be alive Sunday.”

Now, I don’t think that means Shanahan is going to kill Garoppolo (I hope) but I think a trip back to New England could be in the cards before the end of the weekend.