NFL Betting Predictions: Week 16 Odds and Picks Against the Spread

This will be a fun weekend, as we sneak glances at the TV while hobnobbing with Uncle John during Christmas festivities.

Here are my picks against the spread and score predictions for Week 16.

New Orleans Saints (+4) at Los Angeles Rams 

Thursday, December 21st, 2023

The Rams are the team none of the contenders want to face in the early rounds of the playoffs.

Matthew Stafford is playing some great ball, and the trio of Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams is scary. The Rams are technically rebuilding this season and still might make the playoffs.

Pretty incredible work by Sean McVay once again.

Score prediction: Rams 27, Saints 20
Pick: Rams -4

Cincinnati Bengals (-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers 

Saturday, December 23rd, 2023

I have given the Steelers the benefit of the doubt lately, but the quarterback situation is terrible and the defense has not been able to overcome it of late.

Jake Browning continues to impress, and even without Ja’Marr Chase, i think Cincy wins this game and further cements its lock on a playoff spot.

Score prediction: Bengals 24, Steelers 20
Pick: Bengals -2

Buffalo Bills (-12) at Los Angeles Chargers 

Saturday, December 23rd, 2023

I know we are not supposed to overreact to one game, but the Chargers looked so bad against the Raiders and now are dealing with coaching upheaval.

More than anything, Easton Stick against the Bills defense is a bad, bad matchup. I think Buffalo dominates on both sides of the ball and cruises.

Score prediction: Bills 33, Chargers 14
Pick: Bills -12

Indianapolis Colts (+1) at Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, December 24th, 2023

Shane Steichen has done a great job with the Colts and I’m mildly surprised that they are the underdog in this game, even on the road.

It feels like the tension is really ramping up in Atlanta and I like Indy to grab the win at -105 moneyline odds.

Score prediction: Colts 23, Falcons 21
Pick: Colts +1

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans

Sunday, December 24th, 2023

Drew Lock did an awesome job late against the Eagles, but Geno Smith is the better quarterback, and he should be back this week against the Titans.

Seattle is fighting for its playoff lives and will be laying it on the line in this one. The Titans are an OK team but don’t have the firepower to keep up, whether it is Ryan Tannehill or Will Levis at quarterback.

Score prediction: Seahawks 23, Titans 17
Pick: Seahawks -2.5

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, December 24th, 2023

The Lions have a really good offense but Brian Flores is doing some special things as defensive coordinator for Minnesota this year.

Jared Goff is a solid quarterback but he’s not mobile, and I think Flores will be able to design enough exotic blitzes to cause some mayhem and keep this game close.

Score prediction: Lions 24, Vikings 21
Pick: Vikings +3.5

Washington Commanders (+3) at New York Jets

Sunday, December 24th, 2023

The Commanders have once again devolved into one of the worst teams in the NFL and Ron Rivera seems likely to be fired at the end of the season.

Their defense is awful, but I don’t think the Jets have enough firepower to take advantage. The quarterback advantage is enough for me to take the Commanders not only against the spread, but to pull the upset.

Score prediction: Commanders 20, Jets 17
Pick: Commanders +3

Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, December 24th, 2023

It’s been an ugly couple of weeks for the Packers as they have suffered back-to-back losses to the Giants and Buccaneers.

Baker Mayfield tore up the Green Bay defense last time out but Bryce Young is the antidote needed.

The Packers should be able to pull away in this one for a much-needed win to keep their fading playoff hopes alive.

Score prediction: Packers 24, Panthers 16
Pick: Packers -4.5

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Houston Texans

Sunday, December 24th, 2023

The Houston Texans are still right in the thick of the playoff race but the absence of star rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has increased the level of difficulty.

Both of these teams have good defenses and this could be a slugfest. I’ll take the home team and the points.

Score prediction: Browns 17, Texans 16
Pick: Texans +2.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, December 24th, 2023

The Buccaneers have been better than expected on offense and the Jaguars have been worse. Thus, Tampa Bay is the slight home favorite in this one.

I think the Jaguars will get some of their issues ironed out and move the ball well through the air.

Score prediction: Jaguars 24, Buccaneers 20
Pick: Jaguars +1

Arizona Cardinals (+4) at Chicago Bears

Sunday, December 24th, 2023

This spread has dropped a half-point already and I feel like it should be at a field goal margin. The Bears have had some bright spots of late but there are still questions about the passing game and the defense.

The Cardinals can’t contain people through the air but that won’t be as big of an issue here. I could see an upset happening in Chicago. The moneyline odds are enticing at +170.

Score prediction: Cardinals 23, Bears 20
Pick: Cardinals +4

Dallas Cowboys (+1) at Miami Dolphins

Sunday, December 24th, 2023

The Dolphins continue to beat up on bad teams but they have had some issues against quality opponents.

The Cowboys got smoked last time out but I think they have enough pass-rush and cover ability to keep up with the Dolphins. Dak Prescott should bounce back in this one and help Dallas to the road win.

Score prediction: Cowboys 27, Dolphins 24 
Pick: Cowboys +1

New England Patriots (+6.5) at Denver Broncos

Sunday, December 24th, 2023

A win by New England would really help the Cardinals’ draft stock but I don’t see it happening.

I don’t think either of these teams are great at anything, but Denver has more balance and the clear upper hand at quarterback. This one could stay close, as I like the Patriots to cover, but they will fall short of the upset.

Score prediction: Broncos 20, Patriots 16
Pick: Patriots +6.5

Las Vegas Raiders (+10) at Kansas City Chiefs

Monday, December 25th, 2023

The Raiders have been punching above their weight class for awhile now. The defense is up to No. 11 in efficiency and the Chiefs still aren’t completely clicking on offense.

This spread seems a little high to me. It could be cold and rainy on Christmas so I’ll take the Raiders to keep this one closer than expected.

Score prediction: Chiefs 24, Raiders 16
Pick: Raiders +10

New York Giants (+12) at Philadelphia Eagles

Monday, December 25th, 2023

Do the Eagles have some issues? Yes. But they are still worlds more talented than the Giants.

New York has taken an otherworldly number of sacks this season and I expect the Philadelphia pass-rush to wreak havoc here.

Score prediction: Eagles 31, Giants 13 
Pick: Eagles -12

Baltimore Ravens (+4.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Monday, December 25th, 2023

What a showdown this one should be. The 49ers’ offense is reaching historic efficiency but the Ravens have some great numbers this season as well.

Baltimore’s pass-rush is key to this one, as is Lamar Jackson making some plays with his legs. The Ravens are good enough to push this game to the wire. Brock Purdy may be the favorite to win MVP, but I like Jackson to excel and help his team cover the spread.

Score prediction: 49ers 27, Ravens 24
Pick: Ravens +4.5

• Last Week: 9-5-2
• Overall: 116-98-7