Jets Over/Under Wins Odds: Take the Under 6

Sportsbooks have started to open up the total win lines for teams ahead of the 2021/22 NFL Season and Neil Monnery starts our coverage by looking at the Zach Wilson led New York Jets...

When I was scrolling through the over/under win lines for the upcoming season, it was lucky I didn’t have a mouthful of water otherwise my PC screens would have needed a towel to dry them off.

Sportsbooks have set the line at over/under six wins for the Jets for the upcoming season. That number seems incredibly high. I get that they have potentially upgraded big time at the Quarterback position. I was never that big on Sam Darnold when he was drafted.

All the talking heads that year was the Giants made a rickett by choosing the generational Running Back Saquon Barkley with the #2 overall pick rather than take the USC QB. I distinctly remember certain pundits saying that Darnold was going to be a far better player than Barkley. That he would change the image of the Jets and take them forward. The reality however was rather different.

Zach Wilson looks to have more raw tools than Darnold did. I did not mind the pick at all but he’s not going to come in and be a star from day one. He still has plenty to learn.

How many QBs truly excel in their first year in the NFL? I do get that in recent years the trend has been better for rookie QBs. Joe Burrow looked pretty good last season but the team still only won four games. Justin Herbert played pretty well but they still only won seven games and the Chargers weren’t anywhere near the rebuilding job that the J-E-T-S are.

The previous year Kyler Murray led the Cardinals to five wins. Daniel Jones led the Giants to four wins. Both had more skill position talent than Zach Wilson has this year so why would anyone expect them to get to six wins? That seems like an awfully high number.

They did clearly improve the O-Line in the draft as they got two guys in Alijah Vera-Tucker and Mekhi Becton who look likely to plug in and play right away. Keeping Wilson upright and with an extra beat to scan the field to make his decisions is a good move.

Elijah Moore has the potential to be a play-maker in the slot and Free Agent signing Corey Davis should provide a dependable weapon. Yet the running back still has significant question marks for me as is Michael Carter really the guy to step up and be RB1 on anything more than an average team?

Playing in a tough AFC East as well doesn’t help. Buffalo are a really good side. Miami have improved and if Tua Tagovailoa gets to grips with playing in the NFL in his second-season, they could have a real step forward. New England will always be tough with Bill Belichick in charge so if they went 2-4 in division, that would be a good result. That means they need to go 4-7 the rest of the way to get to the six win mark.

Seems like a log shot to me.

When I first put together this article, all the Sportsbooks had this at odds-on but BetMGM currently have the under six wins at +110. Great value that.