Las Vegas Raiders Over/Under Wins Odds 2021: Tough one to predict

The Las Vegas Raiders are a tough team to get a read on and this one of the toughest teams for Zach Rainey to pick in these slate of season long previews...

The Las Vegas Raiders win total is one that seems to perplex me every year.

I’ve taken the under on their win total for the past two seasons, and the same thing tends to happen. They over perform out of the gate, making it look like the bet is in shambles, but then go on a losing streak late in the year, giving me hope.

But then they’ll win their final game or two to destroy my under. Last year’s was especially painful, as I needed the Broncos to defeat the Raiders in the last game of the season. Not only did Las Vegas score the touchdown that would’ve tied the game late in the fourth, they opted to go for two points and successfully got it to win by one and hit the over on their wins.

I was furious.

The Raiders roster is full of guys that you’ve probably heard of, especially defensively, but you hear the name and say to yourself “man, he would’ve been great here two or three years ago.”

I still feel like Jon Gruden secretly hates Derek Carr. Marcus Mariota wasn’t bad when he had to step in last season and brought some parallels to the offense that Carr doesn’t. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gruden gives Mariota some time, especially if Carr struggles out of the gate.

Offensively, they went out and drafted Alex Leatherwood to play offensive tackle, but many analysts thought he would be around on Day 2 and that Gruden and Mike Mayock might’ve reached there.

Clelin Ferrell had less than a stellar year on the defensive line last season. Jonathan Hankins returns for his fourth season in the bay area. Despite being only 29, nobody can argue that Hankins’ better days came when he was with the Giants. He had eight tackles for loss in 2014 and eight more in 2016.

After two consecutive years of just four tackles for loss, Hankins had seven in 2019 before having only one in all of 2020.

The same type of thing goes for Yannick Ngakoue, however, his problem might not be production.

Ngakoue burst onto the scene with that Jacksonville Jaguars team that made it all the way to the AFC Championship. He registered 12 sacks that season. Since then, he’s been consistent, never finishing with less than eight sacks.

He played six games with the Vikings and nine games with the Baltimore Ravens. Only question I have is; for a guy that consistent and young (only 26 years old) why has he been on so many different teams over the last three years? A lot of times, that means the player is less than pleasant in the locker room or in the huddle.

I had always liked Nick Kwiatkoski when he was on the Bears and I think could be good for the Raiders in his second year with the Silver & Black.

Nicholas Morrow will have a chance to prove himself after a few years with the Atlanta Falcons.

The Raiders also brought in Casey Hayward Jr. to be their No. 1 corner at 31 years old. First-round pick from last season Damon Arnette will hope to have a better showing in year two than he did in three.

The Raiders have a tough schedule this year.

I have them falling to Baltimore in their home opener. I also think they could lose to Pittsburgh in Week 2.

It doesn’t get much easier, as I have them falling to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3 and the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 4 before picking up a win against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 5.

They’ll fall at Denver in Week 7 before defeating Philadelphia in Week 7 heading into the Bye.

I have them falling to the Giants and Chiefs right after the bye. They’ll pick up a win against the Bengals in Week 1 before dropping four in a row to Dallas, Washington, Kansas City and Cleveland. They’ll win against Denver before falling to Indy and the Chargers in the final two weeks.

I have the Raiders at four wins this year. It’s always tough when you have to play the Chiefs twice, but with how Justin Herbert looked for the Chargers last season, he’s already clearly the second-best quarterback in that division.

I have the Washington game as a 50/50 game for them, as well as the Giants game. Even if they win both of those, they’re still only at six wins, one below their over/under total of seven. For the third year in a row, I’ll take the under.