Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins: Patrick Mahomes Prop Bet and Week 9 Predictions, Picks and Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins are going overseas for a showdown that will have many across the world on the edge of their seats.

The AFC powers and Super Bowl hopefuls will face off in a titanic clash in Germany on Sunday. Both teams are 6-2, tied for the best record in the conference, with superpowered offenses.

The Chiefs are a slight favorite but the oddsmakers believe either of these teams can come away with the victory, and it will be a big statement for whichever does so.

Spread: Chiefs -1.5
Moneyline: Chiefs -125; Dolphins +105
Scoring Total: Over/Under 51 points

The Chiefs have star quarterback Patrick Mahomes and an offense that is top-5, along with a defense that is playing surprisingly well.

But this is the rare game in which Kansas City might not be the most explosive team on the field. The Dolphins have struggled in signature games this season but a win here would turn some heads, and I like them to pull the mini-upset behind an electric group of playmakers.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Prediction

The Dolphins are averaging 33.9 points per game and 7.3 yards per play on the season, both of which lead the NFL.

The issue is that their two losses have come by a combined 42 points to the Bills and Eagles, which has left some to wonder if they are able to beat up on inferior opponents while not being able to hang with the true NFL juggernauts.

This is a great chance to buck that skepticism, and the Chiefs are going to have their hands full stopping Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and the elite passing attack from Miami.

Hill, the former star in Kansas City, has already surpassed 1,000 receiving yards on the season in only eight games and will be a big key in this one.

The Chiefs are No. 5 in offensive efficiency this season but Mahomes is having a down year by his standards. While tight end Travis Kelce is still playing at a very high level, Kansas City no longer has the depth and balance it did when Hill was around.

The Chiefs are coming off a loss to the Broncos in which the offense really struggled and should bounce back, but I don’t know if they can hang in a shootout.

I also like that the Dolphins traveled early to Germany to allow their bodies to acclimate. Kansas City flew in on Friday morning and it remains to be seen how the overseas trip will affect each team.

This is a must-see showdown on Sunday and the Dolphins are the pick to rev up the offense and beat the Chiefs.

Prediction: Dolphins 30, Chiefs 23

Prop Bet Pick: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 285.5 Passing Yards

Mahomes is averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt this season, which is tied for a career low, but is still at 282 pass yards per game. I think his efficiency should increase down the stretch, as Mahomes has an elite career yards per attempt average of 8.0.

This feels like it could be a shootout, and if the Chiefs are trailing in the second half he should fly by this number with ease. Even if Kansas City is winning, coach Andy Reid fully understands the firepower on the other sideline and can’t take his foot off the gas.

Mahomes is going to be slinging it in this one. The over is the call.

Prediction: Patrick Mahomes over 285.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)

How to Watch Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins

The Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins will face off at 10:30 a.m. ET  on Sunday, November 5th, 2023, at Frankfurt Stadium in Frankfurt, Germany. The game can be seen on NFL Network.