Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions: Week 1 Predictions, Picks and Odds 9/7/23
The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs kick off the NFL season on Thursday Night Football against the Detroit Lions, an ascending team aiming to burst into championship contention in the NFC.
The Chiefs are at home with preseason MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes leading the way, so it’s no surprise to see they are comfortable favorites against the spread to capture this contest.
Both offenses were explosive last season and points are expected in bunches. However, both the spread and the scoring total have dropped in recent days after news came out that Chiefs star tight Travis Kelce is questionable with a knee injury.
Here is a look at the updated betting lines from BetMGM, as of Wednesday, September 6.
Spread: Chiefs -4.5
Moneyline: Chiefs -225; Lions +180
Total: O/U 52.5
Kansas City is also expected to be without star defensive lineman Chris Jones, who remains in a contract dispute with the team. The defensive front is thin without him, and Detroit may find plenty of space to run the ball in this matchup. The Chiefs could also struggle to get pressure on Lions quarterback Jared Goff against a solid Detroit offensive line.
If these things hold true, don’t be surprised if the Lions keep this game close enough to cover.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions Betting Predictions
- Lions +4.5 at BetMGM
- Chiefs -225 moneyline at BetMGM
- Under 52.5 points at BetMGM
Prop Bet: Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs Over/Under 71.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
Much is expected of explosive rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, who was taken in the first round of the draft in April. While he will certainly have a role in this game, it can be a lot mentally for first-year players to understand all the nuances at the professional level so early in their careers.
With that in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised if Gibbs has a smaller role than some project against the Chiefs. David Montgomery is a solid veteran running back that could get the majority of the rushing attempts.
Gibbs is only projected for 37.5 rushing yards, so he would need to either surpass that easily or have a huge game catching the ball in order to hit the over on this prop bet.
While he may become a critical part of the offense as the year goes along, I think this is too much to ask of Gibbs in his debut.
Prediction: Jahmyr Gibbs under 71.5 rush + receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions Game Prediction
Mahomes is going to do his thing, per usual. The Lions’ defense might be improved from a season ago but it’s still going to be a Herculean task to slow down the Kansas City offense.
However, the Chiefs’ defense could have trouble stopping the run, which would open up a bevy of options for the Lions on offense. Detroit will want to keep the ball away from Mahomes as much as possible and limit possessions, so don’t be surprised if it leans on the rushing attack if it is working.
The Chiefs are too good offensively to drop this opener but the Lions are talented enough to keep things close. Look for an entertaining opener to ultimately be won by Kansas City, but it won’t be decided until the late stages.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 27, Detroit Lions 24
How to Watch Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions
The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Detroit Lions on Thursday, September 7th, 2023 at 8:20 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The Thursday Night Week 1 season opener can be seen on NBC.
