NFL Player Props: Ball share to dampen Robinson's numbers

Jacksonville have a new Head Coach, a new starting QB and a new starting RB but where does that leave James Robinson? Neil Monnery has a look...

James Robinson was one of the revelations of the 2020 NFL season when the undrafted rookie won the Jacksonville Jaguars starting RB slot and became one of the most productive players at the position.

When you consider the abjectness of the Jags offense last season, for a rookie to rumble for more than 1,000 yards in 14 games is pretty darn impressive. From a fantasy perspective, he was a quick pick-up once the team cut Leonard Fournette and rose from bench player to starter for many teams (I should know - he did exactly that for me).

Four times last year did he clear 100 yards rushing in a game. He’s clearly shown everyone that he’s a more than serviceable RB and with the Jags having added superstar QB Trevor Lawrence in the NFL Draft, the expectations are clearly that the offense will get considerably better. All this points to a line of a paltry 650.5 yards being one of the strangest that the Sportsbooks have put up but despite being extremely good last season, Robinson is in line to be the #2 RB on the team when the season opens.

Travis Etienne was the 24th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and the former Clemson Tiger will have first dibs at carries out of the backfield. The rookie will also see time at wide receiver but with a huge question mark over the share of carries then suddenly it becomes rather evident why James Robinson’s number is so low. With Carlos Hyde also on the roster to help share the load, it just muddies the waters even more.

With this also being Urban Meyer’s first season as an NFL Head Coach, it just adds another level of uncertainty about what his offensive style will look like. Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevell has been about the block and this will be his fourth OC gig in the NFL.

If Robinson was clearly set to be the number one guy then I’d happily take the over at 900-950 yards even with a small step-back from his rookie season. With it being unclear about the share of carries and the offensive style, I’m leaning towards a bit of a surprise and for James Robinson to go under his number.

Pick: Under on the James Robinson rushing yards market (650.5 yards) at +100 with SugarHouse and BetRivers