Indiana vs. Penn State Predictions: Revenge is in the air for PSU

The Nittany Lions are 4-0 and looking for revenge as Indiana rock up for the ABC night-game on Saturday. Can the visitors upset the home favorite?

Neil Monnery has a look at the betting lines ahead of this one...

Hands up if you thought Penn State would be the number #4 ranked team in the nation after the first month of the season? Yeah, me neither. Yet here we are as the Nittany Lions end a four-game home-stand looking for revenge over Indiana after a - shall we call it controversial - end to their game a year ago.

In that game the Hoosiers went for two points in OT to win rather than kick for the tie. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. scrambled left and dove for the pylon. The ball hit the ground out of bounds momentarily before bouncing up and hitting the pylon. It was called good in real time and the replay officials decided not to overturn the decision. You can bet your bottom dollar Penn State’s players and coaching staff haven’t forgotten that moment.

That certainly doesn’t help an Indiana team who have fallen way below their preseason expectations. Michael Penix Jr. was a star last year but his return from injury has not gone well. His best outing was last week where he threw for 373 yards but had no scores through the air to his name (he did have a rushing TD). Before that though he had two games with three picks.

Indiana have two legitimate BigTen standout players in the passing game in WR Ty Fryfogle and TE Peyton Hendershot. The former is starting to find some form after an extremely ordinary start to the season but Hendershot is already looking pretty darn good, catching 13 balls in his past two games.

As for the home team, they can’t run the ball for toffee but Sean Clifford seems revitalized in the Mike Yurcich offense. The much maligned QB has looked excellent in the past two games and became only the second PSU signal-caller to clear 400 passing yards in a game when he threw for 401 yards against Villanova.

In Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington, they have two excellent receivers who can both go deep and catch a short pass and gain yards after the catch. If Western Kentucky can drop 31 on Indiana then Penn State should feel confident of doing that - and more - on Saturday night.

Spread:

The line has been moving around a bit but at the time of writing, the home are 11-point favorites. I like the Nittany Lions to go out and look to curb-stomp the Hoosiers as payback for a year ago. They are also superior in pretty much every facet of the game.

Straight-up/Moneyline:

No value here as PSU are just too short.

Over/Under Points Totals:

54.5pts is an interesting number. I got PSU scoring in the mid to high 30’s, so the big question is do I have Indiana above 20 or not? I don’t. PSU 38-17. Take the over.