Texans Over/Under Wins Odds: Houston to struggle in 2021

There is a lot of doom and gloom out there surrounding the Houston Texans but the Sportsbooks have set the over/under line at four wins. What do they know compared to conventional wisdom? Neil Monnery has a look at their prospects...

Four times in the past six seasons, the winner of the AFC South were the Houston Texans. At the end of the 2019 campaign, they had Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs more than on the ropes as they zoomed out to a 24-0 lead at Arrowhead to put the foundation in place for one of the biggest stunners in NFL Postseason history. We all know what happened next as KC scored a whopping 51 points the rest of the way leading to a 51-31 victory en route to Super Bowl victory over the San Francisco 49ers.

What I’m trying to say is the franchise is not far removed from being real contenders. Yet when the schedules came out, Sportsbooks made them underdogs in all 17 regular season games that they were set to play. That includes not being favored in their two division match-ups with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Talk about a fall from grace.

Clearly a lot of this is to do with what is going on at the Quarterback position. DeShaun Watson wants out but rather than being able to drive through a trade, he has fallen foul of some legal trouble, both with potential civil litigation and a possible criminal investigation. Either way, he’s not going to be suiting up for the Texans this year so the keys to their offense will be turned over to the league-average at best Tyrod Taylor.

The former Bills, Browns and Chargers starter saw his 2020 season come to a rather bizarre halt when his lung was punctured by a team doctor when trying to administer a pain-killing injection. Justin Herbert came in and showed that he was ready for Prime Time and Taylor left for Houston. He’s a serviceable QB but is clearly a step behind the other three signal-callers in the division in Nick Foles, Ryan Tannehill and Trevor Lawrence.

It isn’t like the Texans have a stocked cupboard in the skill positions either. Remember when Bill O’Brien essentially traded superstar WR DeAndre Hopkins for a past his best RB David Johnson? That was only a season ago. He’ll be joined in the backfield by Philip Lindsay this time around and they’ll be an ok 1-2 punch there but fantasy managers won’t be remotely interested unless they are desperate. I’d be stunned if they appear on many Daily Fantasy Rosters this upcoming season.

At Wide Receiver they have a bunch of solid WR2/3 guys but no-one who needs to be locked down and followed around the field by a star DB. Randell Cobb is fine, Donte Moncrief can play. Brandin Cooks has a role. Chris Conley had 40 catches last year for the Jags and rookie Nico Collins has a chance to break the rotation. Yet none of those players look primed for a breakout season.

Houston used their first-pick in the draft (#67) overall on QB David Mills out of Stanford. The 6ft4” lefty is an accurate passer who goes through his progressions well if given time in the pocket but does struggle mightily when under pressure. He’s incredibly inconsistent but clearly he’s been tabbed as the QB of the future and with Tyrod Taylor not expected to light in up, we could easily see him thrown to the wolves.

Despite all of those negatives however, that O-Line is the reason I’m super-low on their chances this year. Last year DeShaun Watson spent most of his time running for his life as defenders came through that porous first-line of defense for a QB. Will that change overnight? Highly unlikely and considering they only won four games with an elite QB - expecting anything more with such a downgrade at the position seems fanciful.

Bet the under four wins. Best priced at -110 with BetMGM at the time of writing.