Derrick Henry's over/under number is 1550.5 yards - nearly 500 yards lower than what he rumbled for last season
12:17 Friday 30th July 2021 - 3 minute read
With over 2,000 yards to his name on the ground in 2020, Tennessee's number one RB balled out. His line for the 2021 season has been set at 1550.5 yards and Neil Monnery can't see why it is so low...
Like a fine wine, Derrick Henry is getting better with age. Not that the 27 year-old is exactly old but he’s improved considerably for three straight seasons to become one of - if not - the best and most consistent running back around the NFL.
If you were a fantasy owner of him last season then you would’ve been overjoyed with his output. 2,027 yards on the ground with 17 TDs. That isn’t too shabby at all but some might be wary that this was nigh on a 500 yard rise on his previous campaign.
I’m not one of them and I’ll tell you why in two words. Julio Jones.
Teams struggled to slow down Derrick Henry last year when they didn’t have to worry about one of the best wide receivers in the business. When Julio Jones was traded away from Atlanta this off-season it was a huge boost to Tennessee. The former first-round pick out of Alabama had a great run down with the Falcons but despite being oh so close, they never won a Vince Lombardi Trophy.
At 32 his prime might well be in his rear view mirror but he’s certainly not past his sell-by date as it were. If he’s reinvigorated by the new challenge then the Titans vertical game becomes much better and teams will have to keep an extra defender out of the box. Even when they stacked it, Henry ran through them anyway so all this does is open up potentially more opportunities for him to make big gains on the ground.
The line has been set at 1550.5 yards which is on the high side looking across the NFL but Derrick Henry is just that much better than everyone else at the moment. He’s been incredibly healthy and in 2020, in ten of his 16 games during the regular season he rushed for over 100 yards. In three of those games he cleared 200. He needs to average 92 yards a game to clear that 1550.5 barrier if he plays in all of Tennessee’s 17 matches and I’m not backing against him doing as such.
You can get positive odds with PointsBet on this at +105 and I’d be heavily inclined to take it.
Pick: Over on the Derrick Henry rushing yards market (1550.5 yards) at +105 with PointsBet.