Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals: Week 5 Predictions, Picks and Odds 10/8/23

The Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals are each 1-3 heading into their Week 5 matchup.

One of those records was expected, the other wholly not.

The Bengals are off to a disappointing start, as a calf injury to star quarterback Joe Burrow has muted a usually-explosive offense. Burrow has a Total QBR of 33.6 on the season, which is No. 29 out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks.

The Bengals were expected to be big favorites in this game before the season began, but now that we are here, it’s a different story. Cincinnati is struggling, and despite the lone victory in four weeks, Arizona is playing good ball.

Here is a look at the betting odds, courtesy of BetMGM on October 5th.

Spread: Bengals -3
Moneyline: Bengals -150; Cardinals +125
Over/Under: 44.5 points

The side you take in this game depends on one thing: do the in-season results matter more than preseason consensus? If so, the Cardinals could be the pick to not only cover this spread but pull the upset on the moneyline.

However, Burrow is getting healthier, and after a frustrating first month of the season, I think he finally gets right in a matchup against an Arizona defense that couldn’t stop the 49ers last week.

This spread is way lower than anyone expected, and I think it’s too low. The Bengals are the pick to cover in an entertaining NFL matchup.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals Betting Prediction

Burrow is averaging 4.8 yards per pass attempt this season while his career average is 7.4. He was not listed on the injury report this week, which may be a sign that he’s beginning to get past an issue that hit early in training camp and was re-aggravated in the season opener.

Even though the efficiency has been bad, Burrow is doing a good job of avoiding sacks and interceptions. If he continues to do that, the offense will improve as he returns to good health.

Arizona cornerback Marco Wilson has allowed a passer rating of 130.8 on throws his way this year and could get peppered with them when he lines up against Ja’Marr Chase, one of the NFL’s pre-eminent receivers.

The Bengals could very well break out offensively in this game as Arizona’s pass-rush has been lacking of late.

Can the Cardinals keep up?

Backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs has been a revelation, as he’s top-10 in Total QBR, occupying a spot usually reserved for stars like Burrow.

Running back James Conner has been very good and the Cardinals lead the NFL in yards before contact on rushing attempts, which is a nod to both the offensive line and Drew Petzing’s scheme.

I have a feeling Arizona will need to score quite a few points to keep up and the Bengals’ defense is stout enough to answer that challenge.

Prediction: Bengals 27, Cardinals 21

Prop Bet Pick: Bengals QB Joe Burrow Over/Under 263.5 Passing + Rushing Yards

I already felt like Burrow’s total passing yards prop of 251.5 was pretty high, and this just feels like icing on the cake.

Burrow’s mobility is hampered right now, as he’s averaging 0.75 rushing yards per game this season. You read that right.

So while the oddsmakers are giving us an implied rushing yardage total of 12, it feels like three or four is the more apt number.

As I said earlier, Burrow could break out in this one and have a good day throwing the ball, but even if he does, reaching 260-plus passing yards is no easy feat.

The Bengals have not been going deep too often so it could take a lot of completions to get there. And if Cincinnati is ahead by two possessions late in the contest, the running game will be a big part of the offense down the stretch.

Add it together and I’ll take Burrow to finish with 263 or fewer passing and rushing yards against the Cardinals.

Prediction: QB Joe Burrow under 263.5 passing + rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)

How To Watch Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals will host the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday, October 8th, 2023, at 4:05 p.m. ET at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The game can be seen on FOX.