Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers Picks & Best Bets: NFL Prediction Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends

The Kansas City Chiefs were the underdogs in their last two playoff games, and Patrick Mahomes, like usual, made a mockery of that. The best quarterback on the planet has the Chiefs back in the Super Bowl, once again elevating his game at the season’s most important moments.

The oddsmakers aren’t swayed, as they have made the San Francisco 49ers the slight favorites to knock off Kansas City and win the Super Bowl. There is no doubt the 49ers have the better overall roster, but can second-year quarterback Brock Purdy outduel Mahomes when the lights are brightest?

Check out my Super Bowl prediction and favorite prop bet picks below.

• Game Date: Sunday, February 11th, 2024
• Game Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
• Spread: 49ers -2 at BetMGM
• Moneyline: Chiefs +110; 49ers -130
• Scoring Total: 47.5 points
• Location: Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada
• TV Channel: CBS

Our Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Picks & Predictions

San Francisco 49ers 27, Kansas City Chiefs 24

• The 49ers finished the regular season with the most efficient offense and No. 4 defense in the NFL, while the Chiefs were No. 8 and No. 7, respectively
• This is a huge spot for Brock Purdy, but the 49ers are varied enough on offense to keep the load light, especially early on
• The Chiefs have been very good against the pass but San Francisco is unlikely to abandon the running game like the Ravens did in the AFC Championship Game
• DraftKings currently offers the best odds at -105

Total Points Over 47.5

• The 49ers’ collection of skill players – Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle – is dominant and bound to rip off big gains
• If the Chiefs fall behind, Mahomes will be tasked at throwing the vast majority of the time, which will increase the scoring
• While the defenses are both very good, each side has very good passing attacks

Best Chiefs vs. 49ers moneyline odds

Our Player Prop Picks for Chiefs vs. 49ers

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk over 59.5 receiving yards

• Aiyuk averaged 83.9 receiving yards per game during the regular season and has good chemistry with Brock Purdy
• The Chiefs could try to take away Deebo Samuel and the easier passes to force Purdy into tougher downfield throws, which would benefit Aiyuk
• Aiyuk averaged 17.9 yards per catch this season, and one big reception could take a huge chunk out of the yardage total

49ers WR Deebo Samuel under 16.5 rushing yards

• Samuel has reached 17 rushing yards in only one of his past seven games
• Samuel has only carried the ball more than three times in three games this season, and none since November 23
• Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in the NFL and the 49ers don’t need to mess with that by putting Samuel in the backfield too often

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco over 67.5 rushing yards

• Pacheco has averaged 84.7 rushing yards per game in the playoffs and surpassed 67.5 yards in all three games
• Lions RB David Montgomery ran for 93 yards on 15 carries in the NFC Championship Game against the 49ers
• While Mahomes is great, Kansas City will want to stay balanced and take advantage of San Francisco’s average run defense