Bills Over/Under Win Odds 2021: Over 11 wins the play

The Buffalo Bills went 13-3 last season but their over/under number has been set at just 11 in this 17-game season. What is the reason for that? Neil Monnery has a look…

Sometimes when looking at Futures markets you scratch and wonder what the oddsmaker is seeing that you aren’t. Last season Buffalo were an extremely impressive team. Josh Allen showed that he could sling it as well and run the football from the Quarterback position.

Stefon Diggs played like a WR1, hauling in 127 receptions for 1,535 yards and eight scores. Cole Beasley got 82 catches for just shy of 1,000 and was recently named as the most-underrated player in the league by Pro Football Focus. They all return with a swap at WR2 as Emmanuel Sanders replaces John Brown and surely at worst that is a wash.

So why are they tabbed to win two fewer games even with an extra one of the schedule?

They do get a really tough crossover with the NFC and they are scheduled to face-off against the four teams in the East. These four games come in a six-week period towards the end of the season with New Orleans and Tampa Bay being the two games on the road. Fair to say that these are onerous.

In addition, having won their division last year - they get to play plenty of other division winners from the 2020 season. This adds the likes of the Steelers, Titans and some team called the Kansas City Chiefs to their slate.

Worrying about other teams though isn’t what the off-season is all about though. A year-ago they lost only three games. One of those was at Tennessee - a division winner. The next was at home to the Kansas City Chiefs - who most would agree were the best team all regular-season long last time out and the final reverse was on that Hail Murray play in Arizona. Every single other game they emerged victorious

In the playoffs, they beat Baltimore before falling to the Kansas City Chiefs 38-24 at Arrowhead. All in all, you would say that was a pretty good season and without a massive overhaul in personnel, I don’t see any reason why they would fall away this time around.

Josh Allen has clearly proved himself and they have plenty of offensive weapons on the outside to get the ball to down the field. They do have some question marks in the backfield where Devin Singletary is tabbed as RB1 but the third-round pick out of FAU didn’t record a single 100-yard game on the ground last year. That is a concern but even with barely average production out of the position - they still won 13 games. Zack Moss looks like a solid back-up at the position and Matt Brieda can show flashes from time-to-time.

I get the harder schedule will cause them potentially more issues than what they faced in 2020 but I can’t see them dropping away too much more. Buffalo are fundamentally a solid team and clearing that 11 win mark seems eminently doable.

Pick: Over 11 wins for Buffalo at -105 with 888Sport.