Betting the 2021 NFL Draft: Prop Bets Part II

First Defensive Lineman Drafted: Jaelan Phillips +140

This here is perhaps one of my favorite bets of the night.

Jaelan Phillips is an interesting story. He medically retired from football after his sophomore year at UCLA after being hit by a car while driving his moped and went to Los Angeles City College. He decided to take his talents to the University of Miami, but had to sit out 2019 because of the transfer rule.

He was able to take advantage by teammate Gregory Rousseau opting out of the 2020 season, giving Phillips more of an opportunity to prove himself. He did, piling up eight sacks, 15.5 tackles for loss and an interception. He ran a 4.56 40-yard dash.

I think the gap between Phillips and Michigan’s Kwity Paye is smaller than people think and have seen enough mock drafts that gives me a good reason to believe this plus-money prop will come through.

First Defensive Player Drafted: Patrick Surtain II EVEN

This is one I monitored for a few days. In almost every mock draft I’ve seen, it’s had Surtain II going to the Dallas Cowboys at No. 10 overall to the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys are in desperation for a corner since watching Byron Jones depart for South Beach. The secondary was one of the worst in the NFL last season.

Dallas was called America’s Team for a much different reason last year; it was because it seemed like they let everyone in America to throw and score on them.

According to Pro Football Focus, the secondary allowed 16 passing touchdowns of 15-plus yards, the third-most in the league. 13 of them were over 20, tied for the worst mark in the league.

I like Surtain II over Jaycee Horn, who has come on recently in the odds. But I think it got to the point where Surtain II got nitpicked because we’ve known almost all year he would likely be the first corner taken. Before Horn, it was Caleb Farley out of Virginia Tech that was second on the list, but dropped because of having back surgery.

I think it’s going to be an offensive draft early. I think all but possibly one of the top quarterbacks will be off the board, putting the Cowboys in position for the big name Surtain II.

First Non-QB Drafted: Kyle Pitts -150

This one is my favorite bet of the night.

I took this one three days ago when the price was at -150. Currently, the odds hover around -400. My confidence in it reflects the amount of units I have on it, as it is easily my biggest wager of the night.

There really aren’t a lot of scenarios where I think Pitts isn’t the first non-quarterback taken. He’s been tabbed as the best overall prospect in the draft by multiple analysts and looks like a perfect fit for the Atlanta Falcons at No. 4. Other than when partnered with Ryan Shanahan, some of Matt Ryan’s best years early in his career came when he had Tony Gonzalez, one of the all-time tight ends. I’m not saying Pitts is going to be that, but there are enough people saying that already about Pitts. I think even if he doesn’t go to Atlanta at four, the Cincinnati Bengals wouldn’t be able to pass up the opportunity for Pitts.