Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 11

Get your popcorn ready for Week 11 of the NFL season. Football fans have an embarrassment of riches this week, starting with Commanders vs. Eagles on Thursday Night Football. Sunday is headlined by Ravens vs. Steelers, Seahawks vs. 49ers and Chiefs vs. Bills before Cincinnati visits the Chargers on Sunday Night Football and Dallas hosts Houston on Monday Night Football.
Let’s look at some of the best player prop bets to make for Sunday’s slate.
NFL Week 11 Player Prop Predictions
- Pick #1: Jonathan Taylor (IND) to Score a Touchdown (-110)
- Pick #2: J.K. Dobbins (LAC) Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
- Pick #3: Chase Brown (CIN) Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
As bad as the Jets are, one thing they can sort of do is play defense. However, they are much worse against the run than they are against the pass. New York is giving up the second-fewest passing yards, but they rank No. 25 against the run. With 14 rushing touchdowns allowed, only Carolina and Dallas have surrendered more.
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor should be able to capitalize. The Wisconsin product has scored five touchdowns this season, including four in the last five games. He is coming off a 114-yard performance against Buffalo last week. It’s also worth noting that a mistake-prone Anthony Richardson is back under center for the Colts. Expect them to rely heavily on Taylor, especially in the red zone.
Los Angeles boasts a stout defense, but – for any team – the best defense against Cincinnati is to simply keep Joe Burrow and company off the field. That’s just how dangerous the Bengals’ offense is; you must control the clock and limit their opportunities. Of course, the Chargers do that against pretty much any opponent. They feature a run-heavy system, ranking No. 6 league-wide in rush-play percentage and 11th in time of possession.
RB J.K. Dobbins has been the beneficiary, exceeding the 130-yard mark twice and rushing for at least 85 yards on two other occasions. He now faces a middle-of-the-pack Bengals defense that gives up 127.3 yards per game on the ground. Asking Dobbins to surpass a modest 61.5 number should not be too much.
Sticking with the Sunday Night Football showdown, there is also a high-value play on Cincinnati’s running back. The Chargers are No. 5 in the NFL in sacks (31) and No. 5 in passing yards per attempt allowed (6.5). It’s not easy to move the ball against them in chunks. Instead, quick passes and check-downs to running backs are the frequent plan.
Unsurprisingly, Los Angeles has allowed the sixth-most receptions to opposing running backs (5.2 per contest). Over the last two weeks, RB Chase Brown has been targeted 16 times by Burrow and has caught 14 of those 16 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown. Brown should be in line for another big receiving effort against the Bolts.
NFL Player Prop Picks
matchup | player prop | odds | sportsbook | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Colts vs Jets | Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown | -110 | DraftKings | |
Chargers vs Bengals | J.K. Dobbins Over 61.5 Rushing Yards | -114 |
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Chargers vs Bengals | Chase Brown Over 27.5 Receiving Yards | -115 | FanDuel |
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