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Baltimore Ravens Over/Under Wins Odds 2021: 11 wins is right on the money

Lamar Jackson is a fantasy star but also a very special QB in real life
Lamar Jackson is a fantasy star but also a very special QB in real life
By Zachary Rainey

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens see their over/under win totalnumber being set at 11 wins and Zach Rainey thinks that is bang on the mark...

The Baltimore Ravens have some big challenges on their 2021 NFL schedule.

The team finished 11-5 a year after finishing 14-2.

With all of these over/under analysis pieces, I don’t look at the number until I’ve gone through their schedule a few times.

They were 5-1 going into the bye last season, but came up on the hardest part of their schedule; dropping four of their next five with losses to Pittsburgh, New England, Tennessee and Pittsburgh again to fall to 6-5.

Fortunately, the Ravens bounced back to win six of their next seven games, including that memorable Monday Night Football Game against Cleveland.

Lamar Jackson finished with 26 touchdowns to just nine interceptions while completing 64 percent of his passes. He also rushed for 1,005 yards on the ground and seven touchdowns.

With Mark Ingram now out of the picture, I like J.K. Dobbins to take the next step in year two. He had the second most receptions of Ravens running backs a year ago and saw an impressive six yards per attempt on the ground.

As far as pass catchers, I like Marquise Brown to take a step up in his game, but it might not be until first-round pick Rashod Bateman out of Minnesota starts to get more reps as the season goes along. Mark Andrews proved to be one of few consistent tight ends week in and week out and like that production to continue.

On the defensive end, they do lose sack leader Matt Judon after New England signed him in free agency, but do return that lethal secondary that just preys on quarterback mistakes. I liked Patrick Queen coming out of LSU. He looked very raw at times last season, but like him to blend in more with the defense this year.

Baltimore did trade with Kansas City to acquire the No. 31 pick in the draft to select All-Big Ten First Team pass rusher Odafe Oweh from Penn State.

Let’s take a look at Baltimore’s schedule.

Other than the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2, I think the Ravens have a good shot at starting the year at least 3-1. Week 1 I have as a win over Las Vegas in the Monday Night Football opener. Week 3 I have as a win against the Detroit Lions and have them down for a win in Week 4 over Denver.

Week 5 gets a little tricky when they host Indianapolis on MNF. The Colts were good last year. They have a new quarterback in town in Carson Wentz, who reunites with his former offensive coordinator Frank Reich.

I think this game is a toss up at the moment, as I have no idea how Wentz will be in Indy and whether it will be better or worse than Phillip Rivers last year. With it being a toss up, I’ll give the win to the Ravens since they won the head-to-head matchup last season.

The Los Angeles Chargers also pose an interesting challenge to the Ravens. Justin Herbert seems like the league’s next superstar quarterback and put the league on notice last season that the Chargers would be a team to reckon with down the line.

They also have enough athleticism at the pass rusher position to make the day difficult for Lamar. The No. 1 question with LA’s defense will be whether or not Derwin James can stay healthy this year, even though that’s been the team’s No. 1 question since the day they drafted him.

If he can, I think the Chargers actually steal this one. Baltimore will have their heads held high coming off the MNF win against likely a playoff team, but I think Year 2 Herbert makes just enough throws to win.

After the loss, I think they decimate the Bengals in Week 7 before heading into the bye.

Coming off of the bye, I like the Ravens to win their next three, including a home game against Minnesota and away games against Miami and Chicago. I think the Dolphins game will be close and really the only of those three I could see them losing, especially if Tua Tagavailoa turns a corner.

But since I haven’t seen or heard anything about him doing so, I’ve got to go with the team I know and have seen is good, so Baltimore gets that one.

Here’s where the schedule gets significantly more difficult. In Week 12, they host Cleveland on Sunday Night Football before hitting the road for games at Pittsburgh and Cleveland once again. I have Baltimore going 1-2 on this stretch, splitting the games with Cleveland and losing at Pittsburgh.

After that, they take on the Green Bay Packers in Week 15. If Aaron Rodgers is indeed at the helm of the offense, I think Packers edge the Ravens, as Rodgers’ MVP form continues.

They’ll rebound with a close win at Cincy, as I think Joe Burrow will look like a much different quarterback in Week 16 than when they play in Week 7.

Baltimore will get to host its final two games of the season against the Los Angeles Rams and Pittsburgh Steelers. Late in the season last year, the Rams’ defense was an absolute force. With a good quarterback this year, the Rams will be able to win games without having to hold their opponent to just 14 points.

In the final game, they’ll end the season with a win versus Pittsburgh.

If you’re keeping track at home, that means the Ravens will finish 11-5 with their projected win total at 11 exactly.

I won’t be taking this one personally, as I don’t see much value if what I’m projecting and Vegas is projecting is the exact same thing. If anything, I’d take the over in case they are able to not lose to Herbert and maybe take advantage of an old Ben Roethlisberger and win both those divisional games.

Let’s go with over 11, but this isn’t one I’m the most confident in. 

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