Ask Odegard: Kyler Murray’s Start, Drew Petzing Play-Calling and More

Welcome back to the mailbag.

A good variety of questions this week. We’ll start with Kyler Murray and go from there.

“Kylers play has been up and down since his return. How long has it typically taken QBs returning from ACLs to reach previous form/statistics? How much is K1’s case complicated by him learning a new offense as well? Do you think we see a more consistent Murray this year or in 24?” – Jalen KwaMane

“When are we going to have a discussion on Kyler Murray playing bad?” – PRETTYMAMl_

Kyle Odegard: So it definitely feels like that sizzling debut skewed things, eh? We all talked about giving Murray time to return from the ACL and learn the offense, but he showed out in the first game, and now there is a great deal of concern after three weeks.

I agree Murray hasn’t been his normal self, but I do think we need to take a wider view at this. He is not doing many designed runs yet, which is a big part of his game, and it feels like OC Drew Petzing is still trying to figure out how much to lean on Murray and how much help to give him. (He’s been leaned on too much thus far, in my opinion.)

I actually thought he was fine against Houston beyond a couple inaccurate balls – Murray finished No. 12 in the NFL in Total QBR that week – while this past Sunday was the major letdown.

So, yeah, obviously it has not been a good start, but I’m not sounding the alarm. 

“I just asked Jonny V this. Are the cardinals running a vanilla offense to improve their draft stock and speed up their rebuild? i.e. tanking. Knowing they don’t need a QB. Their biggest asset right now is that 1st round draft pick. They can’t be this bad offensively right?” – Jacob Strickland

KO: They are definitely playing to win games. The offense was bad last week but not on purpose. I think Petzing will look at the run-pass numbers and realize he needs to do a better job keeping it balanced moving forward.

When a play-caller sees someone as talented as Murray at quarterback, it is natural to want to keep the ball in his hands, but as I’ve said repeatedly over the past few years, this offense should look like the Ravens and Eagles, not one that throws it 45 times per game.

“Do you have any thoughts on why they did not put in a claim on Derek Barnett? Also are there any pending 2024 free agents you can see them spending on (like Christian Wilkins or Jaylon Johnson as an example?). Thanks Kyle! Love your doggos!” – MonroeJack London

“Which free agents do you think the Cardinals will pursue?” – Kris Kal

KO: The salary wasn’t really an issue so they must not have thought he was good enough. Obviously Jonathan Gannon has a solid understanding of Barnett’s value. 

It’s really hard to pinpoint which players make it to free agency, so I’ll just say that, yes, cornerback and defensive line would be obvious areas to look, though I don’t know which players ultimately get targeted.

“Drafting two WRs in the first round” – Realistic AZ Fan

KO: Way too many needs to spend two on a wideout. If they don’t get Marvin Harrison, Jr., it may not even be one.

“Do you think Michal Bidwill has any regrets not hiring Sean Payton over JG? Denver is 6-5 and with the same talent as AZ.  Thoughts?”

KO: I think he tried to hire Sean Payton, but got turned down. Payton’s big thing was pairing with good ownership and the Bidwills don’t have a good track record, so you can see why he chose Denver. But, yeah, certainly the Cardinals would have loved to get Payton.

“When are you starting a Cardinals based podcast? We need it! You providing some good analytical numbers (DVOA, epa, motion/shift rate, etc..) on the offense and defense compared to the league would be great!” – Jalen KwaMane

KO: I’d like to do one but it’s a time issue. Between writing and having twin 2-year-olds at home, I don’t have the capacity for it right now. Hopefully down the road because I do enjoy the format.

“What position do you think we target with Houston's first round pick? I see a lot of discussion around Jerzhon Newton, but I believe it should be CB, no single position/player has been exposed more than CB1 and Marco Wilson, it needs to be a priority!!!” – Finn

KO: As of now it is the 17th pick in the draft, and at that spot you take the prospect you are most comfortable with. There are defensive linemen, edge rushers and cornerbacks all slated to go in that vicinity, so defense certainly feels like the move.

And while cornerback is a huge need, so, too, is the defensive front. I don’t think you want to pinpoint a certain position.

“Can I request an updated inventory of AZ's 2024 draft capital including estimated comp picks? Need something to look forward to” – Sean

KO: I believe they have these in the first three rounds:

• Arizona 1st-rounder
• Houston 1st-rounder
• Arizona 2nd-rounder
• Arizona 3rd-rounder
• Houston 3rd-rounder
• Tennessee 3rd-rounder

Many assumed they would get a fourth-round comp pick, but it sounds like signing Hjalte Froholdt canceled that out. He’s been solid enough at center but I think that was a mistake. 

An extra fourth-round pick holds more value than having Froholdt on the team for two rebuilding years.

Any clue on why we took Kyler out from under center to shotgun after we had a great scoring drive when he was under center?” – Tino

KO: Very odd decision-making there. That was one of the best drives of the season and then the run game and under-center action was almost completely abandoned.

We all know Kingsbury was a guy who preferred his quarterbacks in shotgun but Petzing is supposed to be running a more traditional NFL offense. I hope we see it moving forward.

“In a top 3 pick scenario, would it make any sense for the Cardinals to take a non-QB such as Marvin Harrison Jr. and then use the texans 1st on QB? One or more of Bo Nix/Michael Penix Jr/Jayden Daniels/JJ McCarthy will be there or within trade-up range” – Mike

KO: No, you either are convicted that one of these quarterbacks is a surefire franchise player or you pass on the position completely. 

If you were in the position of the Seahawks or the Rams, it might make sense to take a quarterback because the future is less clear, but Murray is only 26 and locked into a reasonable contract through 2028.

Either the new regime wants to start over and takes a quarterback with its first pick, or sticks with Murray. No in-between.

“*If* the team decides to move on from Kyler, which QB(s) do you like? I’m a no on Maye and Williams. I like Penix or Nix personally.” – AZCardsAndrea

KO: In conjunction with the previous answer, basically it is going to be Maye/Williams or bust. I guess it’s possible another quarterback makes a stratospheric rise, but this isn’t the time to take a chance on a quarterback when you can be spending that first-rounder on a blue-chip edge rusher or cornerback.

“Do we see the new Cards completing a total Thanos Snap to erase all traces of the previous era? And I mean every single little trace.” – TxJagAZ

KO: Naw, most of the heavy lifting has been done. There are some clear young building blocks that will be holdovers from the former regime. Trey McBride, for instance, isn’t going anywhere.

“Why do I still hold on to being a Cardinals fan despite them consistently finding ways to let me down both off and on the field?” – MikaIBridges25

KO: You got dealt a raw hand with this fandom, but it’s hard changing teams once you’ve picked one. And I’ll say this: the low expectations will make success feel sweeter if the Cardinals ever get it turned around.

“Who’s your under the radar guy who will make an impact these next few games” – Omar

KO: I think Kei’Trel Clark could get a big interception in the next few games. He had the best statistical outing among the rookie cornerbacks against the Rams and will likely be targeted a lot coming up.

I don’t think it’s going to be super smooth the whole time but I could see a splash play or two.

“If the cards end up out of the MHJ/QB sweepstakes, which position of need do you think is most glaring?” – Jayco

KO: Cornerback, edge rusher and a dynamite interior pass-rusher are all sorely needed. Offensive tackle isn’t far behind. 

While the defensive spots may technically be bigger needs, I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up taking Olu Fashanu or Joe Alt with that first pick to lock down the tackle spots for years to come.

“Can you make me not sad about sports.” – Kevin Oelze

KO: Don’t worry, the offseason is almost here, when hope abounds. Your optimism will be back in no time.

“If the Cards lose out and are picking 2, what are the odds Kyler is wearing a Cardinals uniform next year?” – AZCardsBurner

KO: Still very high. Trading down and filling holes or drafting Marvin Harrison, Jr. seem like the most realistic choices.

“Since we are rebuilding wouldnt it make sense financially to part ways with Kyler and his contract? There is nothing Kyler can do that Caleb cant. Caleb is 4 years younger and has not sustained a major injury to his lower extremities. This way the new regime gets a fresh start.” – AZReaper

KO: Well, you’d have to eat something like $46 million, and then the savings you get from drafting Williams would almost be a wash since you could alternately trade down and add first-round picks at premium positions on rookie deals, thus forgoing the need to sign big-ticket free agents.

In most cases a rookie quarterback contract is a big deal, but in Arizona’s case I don’t think it’s so simple.

“Would you rebuild with a rookie qb or one that makes the same as two time super bowl champ Patrick mahomes ?” – angrycardsfan

KO: I’ll keep saying this: the Kyler contract is not a bad one. Deshaun Watson makes the same $46 million per year and it’s fully guaranteed. Daniel Jones makes $6 million less per year. Would you rather have Jones and $6 million or Kyler?

Derek Carr makes $37.5 million and has been the 22nd-best quarterback in the NFL this season. Do you want Carr and $8.5 million or Kyler?

Patrick Mahomes has the most team-friendly deal in the NFL. He’s worth $70 million per year and inexplicably makes 45. But that’s an issue for Mahomes and his agent to figure out.

I’m fine with anyone who prefers a rookie quarterback, but I promise you Kyler’s contract will not inhibit the Cardinals from competing at any point.

“Is Gannons time in Arizona a ticking time bomb before it explodes?” – Kwreeto

“When will gannon be fired?” – Weter

KO: Too soon to judge. If this team is still terrible in 2024, the seat could get hot.

“How was your thanksgiving” – Jacob

KO: It was good! I actually had a version of it on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with different family members. One of the best things about my current job is the ability to attend every holiday/birthday/family function after years of missing events.

“Why are we so terrible.” – WlLSHIRE

KO: Very little talent.

“why has pjj just been very average at best this year” – ayojstfu

KO: Went in-depth on PJJ last week. My thoughts haven’t changed. Some bumps this season but I’m optimistic about the future. Sometimes it takes rookies a bit of time. Look at the progression of Trey McBride from Year 1 to Year 2.

Why was K Clark benched for so long and Marco given so much free rein?” –1618

KO: No clue on that. The coaching staff stayed with Zach Ertz too long as the starting tight end and too long with Marco at cornerback. 

“Did Bidwill become the first NFL owner to enforce a blackout this year and if so, why?” – 1618

KO: I’ve seen the conversation online but have no idea, honestly.

What 5 players do u see being here or another contract besides k1” – Charles Mendoza

KO: Not including the rookies: Trey McBride, Jalen Thompson, Hollywood Brown, Kyzir White and Will Hernandez.

“Does strength of schedule update week to week or is it set in stone? For example the pats have the tie breaker against us for draft position but the rest of our schedule is daunting where theirs is a cake walk” Clarkey Clarke

KO: It updates weekly, but a harder strength of schedule is actually a negative when it comes to draft order, so it feels like the Cardinals are going to lose basically any tiebreaker when the season ends.

“Do you think with Kyzir out we will go after Darryl Washington?” – Dylan Blake

KO: Either D-Wash or Karlos Dansby.

“Will the Bidwill's always be losers when it comes to owning NFL Franchises?” – Wall

KO: The Bengals and Lions are currently in the midst of strong periods for their franchises, so I wouldn’t say perennial losing is set in stone. The NFL has such parity that there will inevitably be some good years.

But it’s pretty clear that franchises like the Ravens, Steelers, Cowboys and Eagles have the infrastructure to remain competitive year in and year out, while the Cardinals are one of those franchises that always finds itself at the bottom of the heap.

An ownership change would be the fastest way to remedy that, but I don’t think Bidwill plans to ever sell.

“When do we expect Michael Wilson back. Would be awesome to have a wide receiver who can ride roller coasters on the field.” – Brian Pigati

KO: Not sure when he will be back but the lack of height on the perimeter has certainly been an issue. Some of those throws have to be 50-50 balls, and the smaller receivers are going to have trouble winning them.

Wilson has been really impressive when on the field, but injuries were a big concern in college and now they are biting him in the NFL. Hopefully he gets it ironed out and has a strong stretch run.

Paris Johnson Jr. Is he being misused by being played out of position? Will it damage his career trajectory?” Anth D

KO: Left tackle does seem like his more natural position, but I don’t think playing on the right side is going to damage his career trajectory. Tristan Wirfs has done both in Tampa Bay and the Cardinals would have never moved him if there was any worry it would adversely affect his long-term prospects.

“When is everyone going to finally realize the JG has a plan and to be patient? And that plan includes Kyler” — Joe Gemma

KO: It’s been a trying season, for sure, but I agree that there is still a clear long-term plan in place. It was the right decision to punt on 2023, and the heavy lifting will come this offseason.

The Cardinals have draft picks and cap space. I also think they have their franchise quarterback in place.

Will things turn around quickly? That’s their plan, of course. We will see if it works out.