Ask Odegard: Did the Cardinals Still Win The Draft-Day Trade With The Texans?
After a scintillating debut from Kyler Murray, the Cardinals are turning their attention to the Houston Texans.
Before the season, we thought this could be a matchup of two bottom-3 teams, but the Texans are currently in line to make the playoffs.
Houston’s pick is clearly not going to end up first overall, nor in the top-5. So with the benefit of hindsight, is Monti Ossenfort’s oft-praised draft-day trade with the Texans now less impressive?
I answered that question and many more in this week’s mailbag.
“Does the success the Texans are having change your opinion of the draft day trade?” – Sahil Bagri
KO: It does not, because the process was still extremely sound. This has ended up the absolute best-case scenario for the Texans, who are getting a very good year from Will Anderson and borderline MVP-level play from C.J. Stroud.
The Cardinals are in danger of ultimately ‘losing’ the trade because that pick is going to come in so much lower, but it’s still not a given.
Paris Johnson looks like a potential franchise offensive tackle, and the Cardinals could easily extract major value from Houston’s first- and third-rounders in the 2024 draft.
The Texans took an incredible risk in that trade up, and kudos to them because it might pay off. Anderson is top-3 in pass-rush win rate and No. 1 in run-stop win rate among NFL edge-rushers, and that first-rounder is not nearly as valuable as projected.
But it was still a great decision by Ossenfort. You make that trade ten times out of 10.
“With Kyler confirming the cards won’t have a top 3 pick, do you think Monti would be aggressive enough to move up for Harrison Jr? Being he will be a difference maker like JJ or Jamarr Chase” – John Redcorn
“If we fall outside of the top 3 do you think there’s any chance we combine our 1st and houston’s 1st to trade up to get MHJ?” – Connor Weiher
KO: If NFL teams agree with the scouting perception that Harrison is on that level, it’s going to be hard to pry away a top-3 pick. You’d likely have to give up your first-rounder and Houston’s to get there, and while he’s a dynamite prospect, the Cardinals have a lot of holes to fill.
First-round picks are immensely valuable because not only do you get a super talented player, but they make a relative pittance for five seasons. I’m not denying that Harrison is a great, great prospect, but I don’t think the Cardinals would give up two first-rounders for him.
One caveat: If they only had to move up one spot and it didn’t cost the Houston pick, then yeah, I think it could be in play.
"What players that have departed the Cardinals are proving they were worthy to keep ?" – Warrior4Life100
KO: It’s hard to say anyone that left has been worth the spend, so props to Ossenfort for being judicious. Zach Allen, Byron Murphy and DeAndre Hopkins are contributing for their respective teams, but haven’t shown to be fantastic values.
The Cardinals were smart to err on the side of caution as they tore down the roster, and the trade of Isaiah Simmons didn’t bite them, either, as he barely plays for the Giants.
The only one that truly backfired was Joshua Dobbs, who looks like Cam Newton reincarnated for the Vikings, but he was on a one-year deal and wasn’t going to play with Kyler back so the reasoning was understandable.
"Where is Darryl Washington?" – James Chafin
KO: Dude stopped letting me track his location on my iPhone! Annoying, bro. Don’t know where he went.
"How the cards create the most cap room for next season (with in reason)" – Bryan Abdallah
KO: There are a few pretty obvious cap casualty considerations. Zach Ertz would save the Cardinals $7.5 million, and you can basically etch that one in stone right now, while cutting D.J. Humphries would add $9 million in savings, though with a $13.8 million cap hit.
Zach Pascal saves you $1.9 million, and that seems pretty likely because of Michael Wilson’s ascension and the potential return of Hollywood Brown. I thought James Conner would be a cut candidate heading into the season but he’s been fantastic.
So Ertz, Humphries and Pascal would save you more than $18 million, which would be added to the $64 million in current space and the money that gets rolled over from this year.
The Cardinals are in a good spot.
And for the record, I love salary cap questions. Keep them coming.
"If Kyler plays well the next couple weeks, what incentive do the Cardinals have to even play him the last few? Wouldn’t it make sense to bench him?” – Breeder J
KO: I’m not a huge morale guy, but there’s no way you could win, say, three out of four games and then tell the team, ‘Hey, we’re benching Kyler.’ It would take all the air out of the group.
The only scenario where this is possible to me is the final week of the year, if the No. 1 overall pick is on the line. Justin Fields sat last year in a similar situation and the Bears got the top pick.
But I don’t think the Cardinals will be in contention for it, so it’s moot.
“What's your go to Taco Bell order” – Tyler Meisterheim
KO: The three soft taco supremes meal. But like one out of every ten times they give me regular tacos without sour cream, and it’s infuriating. Completely ruins dinner. It’s actually a running joke with my wife because my fast food orders constantly get messed up.
“Are the Cardinals ever gonna switch up the jerseys? White pants with their red jerseys would look so much better.” – Kris Kal
KO: I don’t know, but I agree. The white-on-white is such a cool look, but I don’t love the all-red. Would love to see a mixture for the home games.
“Will Kyler be used more in an under the center position or keep him in a shotgun formation?” – Tino
“Do you expect Kyler‘s snaps under center gradually building as the season concludes? Know they’ll be more under shotgun due to preference and for his height, but curious to ask.” – MonsterDemo2
KO: Pretty interesting usage in the first game, with Kyler almost exclusively in shotgun. It’s where he’s played almost his whole life so it makes sense, but I do love the bootleg possibilities from under center.
We will see how it evolves as time goes along, but I would think under center snaps become more common as the season progresses.
“What are the top 3 individual position needs for next year?” – David
KO: Cornerback, edge rusher and offensive line.
“What do you believe is the true source of Mike Florio's Cardinals obsession?” – Thomas Allison
KO: Honestly, Florio says a lot of goofy stuff. It’s not just about the Cardinals.
“How do the penalties against the Cardinals so far this season compare to a year ago under Gannon vs Kingsbury?” – Tom Burke
KO: Well, they have the most penalty yardage in the NFL this season, which isn’t good. But even so, this feels different. There aren’t many operational or pre-snap errors, as both sides of the ball seem well-coached.
You can live with the live-action infractions, and truthfully, some of it may be because the Cardinals lack talent, and inferior players need to hold more to keep pace. I don’t consider it an issue at the moment.
“Will Marco Wilson finally be released this year?” – Ronin
KO: Don’t think so. He’s on a rookie contract so might just get demoted as more talent is added to the roster.
“Johnny and bo have agreed that 3 wins is what will force the issue that K1 is our star qb for the future , now we all pretty much agree he's our guy , what's your veiw on this ?” – Charles Mendoza
KO: I don’t think wins have much to do with it. If the Cardinals lost that nail-biter on Sunday, it wouldn’t have taken away from Murray’s performance. The explosiveness post-ACL was a big question, and that was answered resoundingly on Sunday.
It would take a mini-implosion from Murray the rest of the way for a rookie quarterback to be in consideration, even if the Cardinals pick in the top-2.
“Where do you think the cardinals end up drafting?” – Mugiwara
KO: My guess is the 5-7 range. Not Marvin Harrison, Jr. territory, but not bad. Should still have a chance at one of the two elite offensive tackle prospects.
“Would you rather take Joe Alt or Olu Fashanu if both are available?” - Doug Mielke
KO: What beautiful synergy from the last question. It’s almost like I planned it this way.
I like Fashanu a tad better but both seem like very good prospects. Many scouts believe he would have been the first tackle taken in 2023 had he declared, and seems to have an ideal combination of size and athleticism.
Both seem like top-10 locks at this point and the Cardinals will likely study both closely. Another blue chip offensive tackle makes a bunch of sense to pair with Paris Johnson.
“Which players would you expect them to bring back that are free agents?-- MonsterDemo2
KO: Hollywood Brown is the most important to re-sign and I think that will get done. And as I scan the list of pending free agents… wow. The Cardinals have almost every key player under contract for 2024.
L.J. Collier and Kevin Strong are a couple guys I could see being re-signed, but Hollywood is the only one that’s going to cost much. From there it just depends on the preference of Jonathan Gannon and Ossenfort.
“Are we rooting for the cards to beat Houston or for Houston to win wrt tanking?” – Linda Falalu
KO: For the dwindling tankers among us, a loss to the Texans is optimal because the Cardinals’ pick is in a much more valuable spot. That Houston pick is destined to land in the middle of the first round.
"Considering the Niners d-line, which positions do you think need upgraded to protect K1?” – Cactus Pat
KO: Left tackle and left guard. I’m happy with Paris Johnson, Will Hernandez and Hjalte Froholdt.
“How long until the Cards put former rugby player Leki Fotu under center for all tush-push plays?” – Corbin Barrels
KO: Ha, not a bad idea. If Clayton Tune botches another exchange like Sunday, it might be time for the Fotu Finish.
