NFL Player Props: Kamara to struggle to beat his number

A fantasy stud maybe but can Alvin Kamara clear 950.5 yards rushing in the 2021 season? Neil Monnery isn't so sure...

Alvin Kamara has been a mighty fine player in the league for four years now. Looking back at the 2017 NFL Draft then the New Orleans Saints most certainly got quite the bargain when they took him with the 67th overall pick and he was the fifth running back taken.

Yet he isn’t the bruiser that the position has long been primed for. The 26 year-old is a dynamic playmaker who has great speed bursting through holes or around the perimeter along with having good hands to catch balls and be an asset in the passing game as well.

In his four years however he’s yet to have a 1,000 yard rushing campaign. He’s never cleared the 950.5 yard mark that SugarHouse in NJ have set his over/under number at in terms of rushing yards. This seems like a high number - certainly when you consider the Saints will be adjusting from a veteran QB in Drew Brees who had the accuracy to pick apart a team down the field to either Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill. Both of whom are not Drew Brees.

When you add to the mix that WR1 Michael Thomas looks likely to miss the first few weeks of the season due to having ankle surgery in June, it means that opposition defensive coordinators will not be scared of the game being stretched vertically. That means stopping the run and in that scenario - Kamara becomes a more potent weapon coming out of the backfield.

With a history of never clearing the 950.5 yard set (although it should be noted that the 2021 season will consist of 17 regular season games rather than 16) to go along with the big question marks at the QB position, I would find it tough to pick Kamara to beat his number. He may well still be a big fantasy player with plenty of points in PPR leagues but his rushing numbers are likely to slide a bit.

Give me the under.

Pick: Under in the Alvin Kamara rushing yards market (950.5) at -121.