NFL Player Props: A-Rob to put up great numbers in 2021
Neil Monnery is a huge fan of Allen Robinson but is less than impressed with the Chicago offense. Can he put the over/under 1150.5 receiving yard mark that the Sportsbooks have put up? Let's see...
Allen Robinson is one of those receivers where I don’t look at him per se but look at what is around him when evaluating his prop potential.
I’m a massive fan of the former Nittany Lion. He made one of the best catches I have ever seen in college in the final minute of that 4OT game against Michigan. The player himself is such a fan of that play that he has it tattooed on his body.
Put Robinson with a top caliber QB in a potent offense and he’ll put up fantastic numbers. Put him in an average offense with a sub-par Quarterback and he’ll still put up pretty darn good numbers. Even with Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles chucking the ball around last year, he was still able to haul in 102 receptions for 1250 yards.
So when assessing whether he’ll clear the 1150.5 receiving yards number I’m much more interested in who will be throwing him the ball. Andy Dalton looks highly likely to beat out first-round pick Justin Fields to at least start the campaign.
Dalton of course spent last year in Dallas and started after Dak Prescott went down with a season-ending injury. A 64.9% completion percentage was his highest since the 2015 season and was in fact his second best of his career. If he can continue to get the ball out and remotely in the direction of A-Rob then I expect big things.
What does concern me is apart from the clear WR1, do any of the rest of his receiving corps scare anyone? Darrell Mooney seems like a potential talent but neither he nor Damiere Byrd are going to be big parts of defensive coordinators planning. This means that Robinson is always going to get matched up with the best man guy.
A-Rob though is good enough to beat these guys and even though I think Chicago will be a distinctly average offense in 2021, Robinson in a career year will put up extremely high numbers and should he stay healthy - I reckon he clears the 1150.5 yard mark. To do that he needs to average 68 yards a game. In 2020 he hauled in more than 68 yards of catches 12 times in 16 games and averaged 78 yards a game.
Take the over.
Pick: Over on the Allen Robinson receiving yards market (1150.5 yards) at +100.