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AFC West Odds: Are Kansas City value at -400?

Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs look like all but certain play for the AFC West
Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs look like all but certain play for the AFC West
By Neil Monnery

Short prices are always enticing for those who like to bottom-feed and use sports gambling as a short-term loan with a healthy return. I was thinking about this when scrolling through the AFC West Winner Odds earlier today and saw the Kansas City Chiefs are as short as -400 with some of the Sportsbooks.

That means the payout would be your stake plus 25% meaning a $500 bet would payout $625 and thus make a $125 profit. That all sounds well and good but is that such a sage bet?

Firstly - if Patrick Mahomes went down injured in week one then do you trust Chad Henne to lead the team to a comfortable AFC West title? I know I don’t. This is one of the reasons why short-prices are so tough in the NFL Futures Market because one injury to a key player could really derail a season.

Secondly - are the Chargers really as bad as a +500 shot? Justin Herbert really impressed when he came in last season following the quite bizarre injury to incumbent starter Tyrod Taylor. I love the addition of Corey Linsley to the O-Line and that veteran presence should really give Herbert more time in the pocket this upcoming season. They have struggled to find a consistent running game and that is a concern.

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Thirdly - who knows what the NFL Draft will bring? Every year someone wins and someone loses the NFL Draft according to all the Talking Heads.

In this situation I’m not sure the Chargers could make any moves to attract significant money. The Raiders and Broncos both look like forlorn hopes to crack the top of the division but what if Denver finds a way to get their QB of the future and he’s ready right now?

Vic Fangio’s team has a plethora of impact players in the skills positions - in particular at Wide Receiver where a healthy Courtland Sutton would play into a nice 1-2-3 receiver trio with Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. Yet does anyone trust Drew Lock to a) stay healthy and/or b) be above-average? Yeah, me neither.

Futures Betting really doesn’t pay with odds-on favorites and are much better suited to finding some value deep in the betting. I would avoid betting on the Chiefs at such a short price but if Mahomes stays healthy then anything but a Kansas City AFC West Title would be one of the biggest surprises of the season.

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