2023 NFL MVP Odds: Favorites, Longshots, Best Bets and Picks
Patrick Mahomes is widely regarded as the best quarterback on the planet, but he’s not the favorite to win NFL MVP in 2023.
That honor goes to Joe Burrow, the star signal-caller of the Cincinnati Bengals. Burrow suffered a scary non-contact injury early in training camp but it was just a calf issue, and it is not expected to sideline him during the regular season.
Burrow has +600 odds to win MVP at BetMGM, as of August 1st, 2023. He is an elite quarterback with arguably the best receiving corps in the NFL at his disposal, which could result in another dominant campaign.
While Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs superstar, is right on his heels at +650 odds, Burrow is the player to beat for NFL MVP heading into the 2023 regular season.
However, there are multiple value picks that could pique the interest of bettors heading into the regular season.
2023 NFL MVP Best Value Picks
- Chargers QB Justin Herbert +1500 at Caesars
- Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence +1600 at BetMGM
- Bengals QB Joe Burrow +700 at FanDuel
BEST ODDS TO WIN 2023 NFL MVP
Quarterbacks are the most important players on the field and almost always win this award. Thus, it is not a surprise to see signal-callers make up every spot within the top-10 candidates for NFL MVP.
Burrow, Mahomes and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen are all neck-and-neck in the preseason odds, while Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts round out the top-5.
Here is a look at the 10 top candidates to win the NFL MVP award in 2023, per BetMGM:
- Joe Burrow +600
- Patrick Mahomes +650
- Josh Allen +750
- Justin Herbert +900
- Jalen Hurts +1100
- Lamar Jackson +1400
- Tua Tagovailoa +1600
- Trevor Lawrence +1600
- Dak Prescott +1600
- Aaron Rodgers +1600
BEST BET PREDICTION FOR 2023 NFL MVP
The best value on the board is Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, especially considering his odds at Caesars Sportsbook are more favorable than those at BetMGM. Herbert can be wagered on at +1500 odds to win MVP at Caesars, as of August 1st, 2023.
Herbert had a down season in 2022, but there were multiple reasons for that. The play-calling was suspect, his best wide receivers missed a chunk of playing time due to injury and star tackle Rashawn Slater was lost for the year in Week 3. Herbert was third in the NFL in Total QBR as a 23-year-old in 2021 but dipped to No. 11 overall last season.
The talent is still huge, and Los Angeles first-round pick Quentin Johnston is already drawing rave reviews for his receiving ability in training camp. Between Johnson, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, the Chargers have fantastic pass-catchers, and new offensive coordinator Kellan Olson is going to call more downfield shots than we saw last season.
Herbert has the ability to dominate in 2023, and if he ascends to superstar status, the Chargers could very well win the AFC West and he could garner the NFL MVP award.
The Pick: Justin Herbert to win 2023 NFL MVP at +1500 odds at Caesars
CONTENDERS TO WATCH
Trevor Lawrence is an interesting option at +1600 odds at BetMGM. He made a big jump in Year 2 and the Jaguars have now added star receiver Calvin Ridley to the fold.
Jacksonville plays in a putrid division, so it should get plenty of hype while cruising to an AFC South title. Lawrence was seen as a generational quarterback prospect coming out of Clemson, so the ceiling is there for him to make a longshot run at MVP.
The best bet among the favorites is Burrow, who you can get at +700 odds at FanDuel. The Bengals should throw often this season and he has the type of supporting cast that will help inflate the numbers. I’m not as excited about Mahomes or Allen at these odds because Kansas City’s wide receiver group is questionable and Allen is too inconsistent with his accuracy for my taste.
COMPLETE ODDS TO WIN NFL MVP
Here is a list of all the candidates to win the 2023 NFL MVP award, according to BetMGM on August 1:
- Joe Burrow +600
- Patrick Mahomes +650
- Josh Allen +750
- Justin Herbert +900
- Jalen Hurts +1100
- Lamar Jackson +1400
- Tua Tagovailoa +1600
- Trevor Lawrence +1600
- Dak Prescott +1600
- Aaron Rodgers +1600
- Justin Fields +2000
- Deshaun Watson +2500
- Jared Goff +2500
- Geno Smith +3000
- Brock Purdy +4000
- Russell Wilson +4000
- Derek Carr +4000
- Jordan Love +5000
- Kenny Pickett +5000
- Matthew Stafford +5000
- Kirk Cousins +5000
- Trey Lance +5000
- Mac Jones +6600
- Daniel Jones +8000
- Christian McCaffrey +8000
- Kyler Murray +10000
- Justin Jefferson +10000
- Sam Howell +10000
- Jimmy Garoppolo +10000
- Ryan Tannehill +12500
- Tyreek Hill +12500
- Baker Mayfield +12500
- Derrick Henry +15000
- Micah Parsons +15000
- Cooper Kupp +15000
- Deebo Samuel +15000
- Ja’Marr Chase +15000
- Desmond Ridder +15000
- Bailey Zappe +15000
- Saquon Barkley +15000
- Bryce Young +15000
- Travis Kelce +15000
- Myles Garrett +20000
- Stefon Diggs +20000
- C.J. Stroud +20000
- Davante Adams +20000
- Nick Bosa +20000
- CeeDee Lamb +20000
- Zach Wilson +25000
- T.J. Watt +25000
- Aaron Donald +25000
- Carson Wentz +25000
- George Kittle +25000
