NBA Betting: Hawks, Magic Best Eastern Conference Picks to Surpass Win Totals

The NBA regular season opens in just under three months, and with rosters largely set, it feels like an apt time to parse through win total lines before any more movement occurs.

The Boston Celtics open as the regular season win total favorite according to FanDuel Sportsbook, set at 54.5 as of August 2nd. The reigning champion Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks follow just behind at 53.5 wins.

One of the more fascinating things to look at each year is the handful of teams that outperform their early-season expectations.

Who are the Eastern Conference teams in 2023-24 that could be primed to surpass Vegas’ projections?

Atlanta Hawks: Over 41.5 Wins (-110)

The Hawks went exactly .500 last season, making a coaching change mid-season to bring in former Jazz head man, Quin Snyder. This is a team that’s gotten a bit younger, more athletic throughout the rotation, and amplified its shooting across the roster.

While much of Atlanta’s success is hinged upon internal development and finding cohesion with a new coaching staff, there’s reason for optimism in that.

Snyder has won fewer than 42 games just twice in his career, his first two seasons at the helm in Utah. After closing the season as Atlanta’s coach for the final 21 games and their first round playoff series, an unprecedented mid-season outside hire, it stands to reason that there’s more built in connectivity headed into the year than if Snyder had just been hired in the summer.

Much of last season’s difficulty was finding momentum and chemistry between Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. Both had good seasons in 2023, but they never quite felt in sync. The offense could devolve into a bit of a my-turn, your-turn affair. 

However, under Snyder, the process in the offense felt better down the stretch even if it wasn’t fully borne out statistically. Theoretically, there should be better spacing on the wings as AJ Griffin takes on a larger role as a sophomore, and additional wing depth in veteran Wesley Matthews, along with a full year of mid-season acquisition Saddiq Bey.

John Collins is a very good NBA player, but as his shot fell off last year, and defenses acted accordingly, the lane was often clogged for Atlanta when he shared the court with another big. 

With Collins now in Utah, and a team with more shooting and frontcourt versatility as Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu have another off-season under them, the Hawks feel primed to take another step forward after a few steps backwards since their trip to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Orlando Magic: Over 36.5 wins (-115)

It may seem risky to take a swing on a team that’s being given a boost from last season’s win total, but the Orlando Magic have me captivated. 

After struggling with injuries, particularly to the guard rotation, for much of the early season, the Magic made significant strides as the year went on and played roughly .500 basketball from the start of the 2023 calendar year onwards (21-24). Per Cleaning the Glass, they maintained the 10th best defensive rating in the league over that stretch starting on January 1.

Offense was the primary struggle for Orlando last season; first overall pick Paolo Banchero put up incredibly promising stretches as a rookie primary creator, but also dealt with some inefficiency and cramped floor spacing. 

The Magic finished in the bottom third of the league in both three-point volume (27th) and accuracy (24th). Adding Joe Ingles as a deep bench spacer and Jett Howard with the 11th pick doesn’t completely rectify Orlando’s shooting, but adds layers that didn’t exist last season. 

Can Caleb Houstan cement himself more as a second-year player who has shown flashes as a complementary wing?

Continued growth of Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, and Banchero will be paramount, as will health to mainstays in the rotation like Wendell Carter Jr., but I’d wager on Orlando being the young team that rises in the East, is competitive in the play-in tournament, and potentially the playoffs.

2023-24 Regular Season Win Totals – Eastern Conference

Here is a look at the over/under win totals for every team in the East, according to FanDuel on August 2nd:

• Boston Celtics 54.5
• Milwaukee Bucks 53.5
• Cleveland Cavaliers 50.5
• Philadelphia 76ers 49.5
• Miami Heat 48.5
• New York Knicks 44.5
• Atlanta Hawks 41.5
• Brooklyn Nets 37.5
• Indiana Pacers 37.5
• Chicago Bulls 36.5
• Toronto Raptors 36.5
• Orlando Magic 36.5
• Charlotte Hornets 30.5
• Detroit Pistons 26.5
• Washington Wizards 24.5