How Does Steven Adams' Injury Impact the Memphis Grizzlies?

The Memphis Grizzlies entered October already facing a 25 game suspension to star guard Ja Morant, handed down by the NBA after flashing a firearm on Instagram Live. Sunday afternoon, they lost another starter, this time for the season, as Steven Adams was announced out for 2023-24.

It goes without saying that this is tough on a human level, as Adams hasn't seen time on the court since January 22nd, and will now go over a calendar year without playing a game. The Grizzlies were comfortably better with Adams on the court this past season, outscoring opposition by nearly 10 points per 100 possessions when he played. 

While the defense has been fantastic with Adams, particularly when he and Jaren Jackson Jr. (reigning DPOY) shared the court, the offense is what took a substantial dive without Adams. According to PBP Stats, the Grizzlies maintained a 120.97 offensive rating with Adams playing (that would rank 1st in the league), and with him on the bench or out of action, they managed just a 113.9 offensive rating... good for the 23rd best offense in the NBA last season.

Memphis relied heavily on second chance points to fuel their offense, a staple of their identity. He's sneakily developed into a plus passer over the past few seasons, hitting cutters from the high post, and is one of the best screeners in basketball. On paper, small margins to lose, but in totality, monumental when looking at Memphis' ethos; few players blend all the skills and proficiencies that Adams brings to the table in one package.

A Big Year for Jaren Jackson Jr.

Jaren Jackson Jr. took a sizable leap last season, winning Defensive Player of the Year (One of the odds on favorites for this coming season). 

He exploded as a defensive playmaker, averaging 4 combined steals and blocks per game, dominating as a mobile rim protector. However, his foul troubles are now of even more focus without the added presence of Adams. Jackson made strides reigning in some of his body control this past season, but finished 9th in fouls per 100 possessions amongst players that played 1,000 minutes or more.

While being able to maintain composure defensively is paramount, it's keeping Jackson's offense on the court that perhaps matters even more.

Post All-Star break, Jackson averaged 21.6 points per game, shooting at a 62% true-shooting clip, and carrying the highest usage of his young career (27.5%) as the Grizzlies went 16-9. He's gotten more comfortable and actionable as a post scorer, adept at drawing fouls himself, and better as a finisher off the bounce. Memphis cannot afford to have Jackson on a streaky minutes load this season.

While there's no "good" in losing a player to injury, there might be a silver lining in that Jackson could be elevated by the Grizzlies playing in a different way, giving him more opportunities to attack mismatches in the frontcourt.

Who Else Could Step Up?

4th year center, Xavier Tillman Sr., appears the likely immediate fill in for Adams, as he went from largely spot minutes/out of the rotation to logging 25+ minutes per game after Adams' injury. He's a stout defender with similar playmaking skills (arguably better passing) and screening ability, but his lack of true center size has been a hinderance to him as a finisher on the interior. 

Is there room for him to take a step as a shooter from distance? Does he have more in his bag as an outlet scorer this season?

Brandon Clarke's return from an achilles injury last season looms large. A high value bench big throughout his rookie contract, can Clarke take meaningful steps across the board to up his play?

It also seems plausible that the Grizzlies could pivot, playing Jackson more at the five while also employing more of their hybrid forwards and tweaking their style of play, opting to be more aggressive defensively. Jake LaRavia, David Roddy, and Santi Aldama have all shown intriguing flashes, Aldama likely having the inside shot at more minutes.

While Aldama is more of a true 4, his combination of size, playmaking chops, shooting ability, and offensive craft make him feel like a really exciting fit in a pace and space lineup.

Regardless, losing Adams is a significant hit to Memphis' immediate success, but from the experimentation they'll have to endure early on... is there a window to better play headed deeper into the season?