Halfway through the MLS Season: Who are favorites to win?

With the European Championships and Copa America providing a ton of excitement for soccer fans and bettors alike across the globe, the last few weeks have produced some scintillating action on the pitch. However, the summer of soccer doesn’t have to end after both tournaments wrapped up play on Sunday, July 14.

Major League Soccer isn’t nearly as popular as the major leagues in Europe, but the 2024 season is in full swing and will continue to heat up as we barrel toward the end of the regular season in October. 

Let’s break down the major storylines from the first half of the season and get into the current odds, plus predictions and a best bet for the MLS Cup at the halfway point. 

Messi’s Brilliance Sparks Inter Miami

The past five MLS seasons have seen four different champions emerge from the pack, with the most successful clubs being the Columbus Crew, Los Angeles FC, New York City FC and the Seattle Sounders. In total, 15 teams have won the MLS Cup with the most recent first-time winner being Los Angeles FC back in 2022. 

It’s entirely possible that we could see another new champion emerge this year, as Inter Miami are currently the favorites to take home the MLS Cup at most sportsbooks. Inter Miami is the most popular team in the league given that they have Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, Sergio Busquets, Jordi Alba and other legends of the global game on a roster that features the most talent of any MLS club at the moment.

After making only four starts a season ago, Messi has racked up a whopping 12 goals and 13 assists in just 11 starts this season, part of why Inter Miami have one of the league’s best offenses. 

While Messi’s brilliance is the straw that stirs the drink for Inter Miami, the likes of Real Salt Lake and LAFC are also led by extremely talented offensive players. In fact, Cristian Arango of Real Salt Lake leads the Golden Boot race with 17 goals this season. Denis Bouanga of LAFC has 14 goals on the season while also racking up 118 shots and 43 shots on target, with both marks topping the season-long table amongst all players.

MLS Cup Latest Odds

Even as it has been overtaken by FC Cincinnati for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, Inter Miami continues to lead the overall MLS Cup odds, sitting at +185 at most MLS sportsbooks. Over in the Western Conference, there are three teams stuck on 43 points at the midway point, with LAFC having odds ranging from +500 to +650 at most places.

With three months remaining in the regular season, below are the current contenders and their odds to win the MLS Cup. 

MLS Cup format

For those unfamiliar with the MLS Cup playoffs, the format is actually fairly similar to that of the National Football League. For starters, the top seven teams in each conference make the MLS Cup playoffs, with the top seed in each conference receiving a bye to the conference semifinals. The other six teams in each conference square off in single-elimination games, with the higher seeds hosting each match in this format. All in all, there are four rounds in the MLS Cup playoffs before a champion can be crowned. 

MLS Cup prediction: FC Cincinnati (+900)

Here at Betting Odds we like to give our own MLS predictions.

While it got off to a fairly inauspicious start to the campaign, FC Cincinnati has since established itself as one of the best teams in the MLS, hurtling into contention in the Eastern Conference after picking up victories in 12 of its last 14 fixtures.

This terrific run of form since April 20 includes a massive win against Inter Miami in which Cincinnati scored 6 goals against the title favorites. Cincinnati also took care of business against a pair of projected playoff teams in the Columbus Crew and Colorado Rapids in that span. 

With top-5 marks in both goals scored and goals allowed on the season, Cincinnati is a very well-rounded side that projects to be a unit that can defend well against playoff-caliber teams, while also being able to score goals at a rapid rate. While Inter Miami still deserve to be title favorites due to the talent on that side, FC Cincinnati is more than a worthy challenger and deserves at least a small sprinkle at this price.

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