Can Messi Win the MLS Cup?
Inter Miami FC is bidding for its first Major League Soccer title in its fifth season as a franchise. Miami certainly has the talent to accomplish that feat, being led by one of the best players of all time – Lionel Messi. The Argentine legend joined the club midway through the 2023 season and has completely turned around its fortunes.
But how far can Messi take Miami? Is he poised to bring MLS glory to South Florida for the first time?
Nothing to show for Miami in its early stages
Saying that Inter Miami has never won the MLS championship is putting it generously. Owner David Beckham’s club has never won a single playoff game or scored a single playoff goal. Since its inaugural year 2020, Miami has advanced twice to the postseason. It was the Eastern Conference’s No. 10 seed in 2020 and lost to Nashville in the play-in round 3-0. Two years later the Herons were the No. 6 seed in the East and fell in the first round 3-0 to New York City FC.
Messi arrived last summer and promptly led Miami to the Leagues Cup title (a competition that involves teams from MLS and Mexico’s Liga MX). The Herons also finished runner-up in the U.S. Open Cup. However, they were so far down the MLS standings when Messi joined the party that not even he could drag them into the playoffs. Miami compiled a 9-18-7 record for second-to-last (14th) in the conference.
Inter tops the MLS table in Messi’s first entire season
As bad as Miami was in the 2023 MLS season, its late turnaround inspired by Messi set the stage for success in 2024. The Herons boast a 12-3-5 record through 20 matches, good for 41 points. They are enjoying a two-point lead in the Eastern Conference over second-place FC Cincinnati, while no Western Conference representative has more than 37 points. Messi is tied for the team lead with 12 goals and leads the league in assists by a country mile (13, no one else has more than seven).
It’s not all Messi, of course. Miami also lured a trio of his former FC Barcelona sidekicks into the fold, signing Luis Suarez, Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets. Beckham also brought in famed manager Gerardo “Tata” Martino simultaneously. Martino led Atlanta United to the MLS Cup title in 2018.
Suarez has contributed 17 points (including 12 goals) this season, while Alba is on seven points and Busquets six. The roster also features Leonardo Campana (five goals), Robert Taylor (three goals, three assists) and Julian Gressel (one goal, seven assists). Gressel was an anchor of the Atlanta team under Martino that lifted the trophy six years ago.
Herons are favored, but the value is elsewhere
As a result of being No. 1 on the current MLS table in addition to its status as the most widely publicized club with Messi on the roster, Miami is understandably a massive favorite to win the title – currently priced at +165. No other club has better than +900 odds, which is where both Los Angeles-based teams (L.A. Galaxy and LAFC) currently register. FC Cincinnati is a +1000 fourth choice, followed by the defending champion Columbus Crew at +1400.
Although Miami is undoubtedly the most talented team in the league, soccer is a sport decided by extremely small margins – similar to baseball and hockey. It’s not like basketball and football, where the best team – or one of the best teams – wins almost every time. Moreover, only the first round of the playoffs is a best-of-three situation. The conference semifinals, the conference final and the MLS Cup is simply a one-game, winner-take-all showdown. In other words, the postseason is a borderline crapshoot. As such, it’s hard to consider +165 as enticing value on Messi and company.
In addition, Messi is currently on international duty with Argentina in the 2024 Copa America. The MLS season is continuing during this tournament, meaning that Inter Miami is having to suck it up and play without their leader, which of course, could lead to slip ups and the potential to fall out of a top spot in the Eastern Conference.
There is no question that Messi can bring a first-ever MLS trophy to Miami. That being said, it isn’t as likely as the odds suggest.
Having played one fewer game than Miami at the moment, Cincinnati looks poised to top the regular-season table sooner rather than later. It has great value at +1000 odds. Meanwhile, the two L.A. clubs are laced with both talent and experience. If one of those two emerges from the Western Conference, it would have a good shot at taking down Messi and Miami (or Cincinnati) in the championship round.
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