Assessing Alanna Smith’s Fit With the Minnesota Lynx

WNBA free agency is off to a slow start, as to be expected. Nearly every team that views themselves as legitimate threats this next season is having meeting and conversations with the top free agents. Much like we saw last year, once those top free agents sign, I would expect things to pick up swiftly and fall into place.

Take what we saw last year with Breanna Stewart signing and then Courtney Vandersloot doing the same. Minnesota, Seattle, and Chicago all had themselves in the running to a degree and until they pulled out of talks once things were finalized, we did not see many smaller moves down the scale.

That makes sense!

If you have cap space and are betting on getting in star talent, you are going to save your space to do so and pivot when it's necessary. As I've pointed to a few times since the end of the season, I would anticipate Skylar Diggins-Smith, my top free agent this off-season, to be the domino that sets the rest of free agency in motion.

However, bucking that trend, the Minnesota Lynx made one of the first sizable signings of the off-season, inking Alanna Smith to a multi-year deal per ESPN's Alexa Philippou

The deal, and all others in the W, cannot become official until February 1st.

Smith was one of the breakout players of the 2023 WNBA season, starting 35 of 38 games for the Sky and playing more minutes in one season than she had the first four of her career with the Mercury and Fever.

She was one of the more efficient players inside the arc last season, shooting 62.6% on two-pointers per Her Hoop Stats, rating in the 98th percentile in the WNBA.

The versatility of what she could do as a scorer and outlet in the offense is what set her apart in my eyes (Data from Synergy Sports).

• 97th percentile in transition efficiency
• 72nd percentile in Pick and Roll roller efficiency (rolling as the screener)
• 91st percentile on cuts
• 84th percentile on post-ups (including passes out of)

While the numbers are only a brush stroke in understanding the full context, the effectiveness from Alanna in so many utilizations pops. Playing last season in an offense where so much of the decision-making and playmaking comes from the bigs, she shined. So much of what Chicago ran was out of motion, sets from the high post/elbow, and inverting the offense with cutting around playmakers.

Smith has a fluid handle for someone her size (6'4) and her improvements in control getting downhill were notable last season. She also excelled at absorbing and playing through contact, and with a remarkably high release point and silky touch in the mid range, she was could create at a high level off one or two dribbles.

Improving her finishing and ability to score unlocked a greater ability to get the most out of her court vision, amplifying her playmaking skills. She excelled as one of the best passers out of the short roll and general two-man game/drawing two last season. 

When the defense cares that you're headed towards the rim, you can make them feel it when you move the ball with zip.

Her improvements and consistency offensively opened the door for her to stay on the court even more to showcase her defensive skill set.

While Alanna is a bit of a 4/5 tweener, she is a menace off of the ball. She was one of just three players last season that had a steal rate over 2% and block rate over 4% (RE: over 6% of defensive possessions player is on court ended with them blocking or stealing a shot), standing alongside Rebecca Allen and A'ja Wilson, the back to back Defensive Player of the Year.

Smith is not A'ja Wilson, but she was on my short list for All-Defense last season and would likely have made it if we had a third team.

Her timing on blocks is exquisite, one of the best help side rim protectors in the game. She covers ground quickly, excelling at rotating low in a defensive scheme. She can hedge and blitz well, quite mobile at her size and great at using her wingspan as a deterrent. She is always a threat in the passing lanes.

When she was asked to play the 5 at times last year, there were real plusses on both sides of the ball, but playing against larger centers with how aggressive she is on the defensive end was one of her areas that caused her to get into foul trouble. She can defend true bigs in a pinch, but asking her to guard up as the main task is taking her away from what she does best, in my eyes.

Point blank, I love this signing so much for Minnesota. Smith fits the ethos of what Cheryl Reeve and this staff really started to implement to a high degree last year, and while there are some other aspects I want to examine on both sides of this, this is a home run.

Synergy's defensive tracking (and tracking data at large) is far from perfect, but helps us to add some context: The Lynx finished second in the 2023 regular season in total percentage of team possessions spent playing zone.

While part of that was due to this team trying to toggle around with different coverages, I think it's something we'll continue to see from this group. With Napheesa Collier and Diamond Miller in the fold already, two forwards with length, quick feet, and athleticism, adding a player like Smith to that mix gives you even more flexibility in a zone (and in general). This team had some struggles guarding man up on the ball, which I imagine they will try to address this off-season, but so much of their defense that they gravitated towards was about switching and having help behind/around that. 

The Lynx were 10th in steal rate last season and dead last in block rate. Adding Smith brings a higher level of defensive tenacity that they lacked often last season. Defense is not solely steals and blocks, but blending that into a cohesive base scheme is crucial to elevating what you can do on that end. Lack of rim protection was felt in droves by the Lynx, and addressing that was vital. 

Part of what I love about this signing, is again, that collective length. Chicago is a very athletic team, but typically played 3 or even 4 guards at a time last season. Minnesota is going to play quite big. We may see lineups where Kayla McBride at 5'11 is the smallest player on the court, and wheeeew that opens the door for some exciting things on either end.

Minnesota got really fun with the way they picked at and attacked mismatches last season, as few teams could feasibly defend ball screens actions involving Phee and Diamond. So few teams in the league have the personnel to play against that already, and it's enticing to imagine what that looks like as both keep rounding out.

My biggest think I'll be tracking with this is the shooting between the trio. 

Collier shot 29.8% from deep last season, although I do think she gets guarded like a better shooter (and she is one in my mind).

Miller shot 30.7% from deep.

Smith shot 41.2% from three across the first 10 games last season before shooting 23.5% the rest of the way.

That's not to denigrate this group. All three of them do things at their size that only a handful can do on the offensive end, and that can't be forgotten. However, when weighing what things could look like in crunch time and when it bogs down in the halfcourt, it will be important that the spacing can still be more optimal.

I will add, I believe confidence/hesitation was more of an issue for Smith than her not being an actual shooting threat. I really want to see her just let it fly this year, which is easier said than done, but she's shown repeatedly that she can be an accurate high volume threat in college and overseas.

In 23 games played with her Turkish club Emlak Konut SK (KBSL games and Eurocup), Smith is shooting 38% on over 4 attempts per game. Extrapolate that out to all of her games played overseas last season (Poland in 2022-23) to 64 games total, and Smith is shooting at a 38.2% clip on the same volume.

We have a large enough sample size to know that Alanna is that pedigree of shooter, the W can just be very wonky given how condensed the schedule can be.

While free agency is still in its early stages and much can happen between now and the start of the season, I'm fully in on this first move for the Lynx and can't wait to see how else they bolster and tweak the roster.