Assessing and Analyzing the Trade Between the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx

As things are starting to heat up in the WNBA off-season, signings can become official tomorrow (February 1st), the Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun made a significant trade today, altering the guard room for both franchises.

Tiffany Mitchell is headed to Uncasville and Natisha Hiedeman is on her way to the Twin Cities.

It's worth noting that this is a fairly like-sized salary swap although with a distinction: Hiedeman is making $120k this coming season on an unprotected contract in the final year of her deal. Mitchell is making $139k in the final year of a protected veteran contract (fully guaranteed).

It's also worth remembering that Tiffany Hayes retired recently, adding an important lens with respect to viewing this trade for the Sun.

I lean more towards really liking this move for the Sun, but ultimately feeling that both teams can benefit from it in their own ways.

Connecticut leaned heavily into their read and react motion offense, predicated by cutting, quick decision-making, and intuitive play. Especially with star center Brionna Jones being lost for the year so early into the season, we saw a ton of this team finding their stride in that spread out system and also playing a highly aggressive defensive scheme with a lot of length, but minimal size.

Point blank, Hiedeman's fit was shaky for much of the season. Coming off of a career season in 2022, Hiedeman struggled mightily with consistency in 2023. Her shot waxed and waned, as did her confidence in it. There were many moments of hesitation both from deep and offensively as a whole. While she's on the smaller end, she's very good chasing and navigating around screens, but her stature was felt more by the Sun this season with a massively downsized frontcourt.

Teams worked schematically to put Hiedeman in difficult actions rotating low on the back end of Connecticut's blitzes or attacking her on the ball with size or quickness. Lacking the interior roll threats of Bri Jones and free agent departure Jonquel Jones hurt her impact driving and attacking the rim. Hiedeman shot 31% on drives to the rim this season, a steep fall from 40.6% on drives the season prior.

This is not intended to be unfair to Hiedeman, it's just the reality of the game; it is REALLY hard to be effective and impactful in every scheme and system.

While Mitchell cannot fully replace the off the dribble dynamism that Hayes brought, she brings it in a different package, an absolute force getting downhill. For reference, she got to the line at a rate over twice as high as Hiedeman (31% free throw rate to 14.6%). Mitchell shot slightly more effective on drives, around 37% on much higher volume, while also adding that true shooting effectiveness with respect to the free throws; defenses care when Mitchell attacks the paint.

TLDR: Tiffany Mitchell forces defenses to rotate, to help low, and to protect the rim when she attacks off the dribble. 

I would also posit off rip that Tiffany Mitchell could be in for a career year with the Sun, especially when considering her efficiency.

It's worth noting that while Mitchell was fairly average with respect to efficiency last year, so much of that was due to how much the Lynx asked of her. They didn't have many ball-handlers last season, oft asking her to play out of position at point. Just 37% of Mitchell's two point shot attempts were assisted on last season, the second lowest mark of her career. That will change in Connecticut, as the Sun finished second in assisted shot rate in the league this past season (68.5% of all shots assisted).

To add a layer of appreciating that, nearly 70% of DeWanna Bonner's two pointers were assisted on last season, the highest mark of her career since 2018 (the farthest back Basketball Reference's shooting data goes back).

Playing in an inverted offense (bigs on the perimeter and handling much of the decision-making), the cutting lanes and driving lanes are just different. It's a huge part of what made the Sun work at such a high level this last season. Minnesota plays with a lot of versatility and inversion, but without the same kind of spacing that the Sun thrived with. They worked more with high lows, attacking with size mismatches, and did it well!

However, much of what was asked of Mitchell was to create when things bogged down or to carry bench lineups; I think that'll look different in Connecticut both in what she's asked to do, and in how it looks when she does it.

As another lens, Mitchell is a really solid defender who gets after it at the point of attack and is no slouch off the ball. Mitchell is 5'9, but she plays much larger, capable of using her strength to stifle. She also fits that mold of what Connecticut had in Hayes to a degree, a piece they really needed to try and fill after losing her to retirement.

Here's a really fun aspect!

Sun GM Darius Taylor was on staff at South Carolina while Mitchell was in Columbia. She played against Assistant GM Morgan Tuck collegiately and in the WNBA. Stephanie White coached her during her rookie season with the Fever in 2016.

There's a familiarity here already.

The Sun keep building out to be more athletic, more versatile, and to supplement Alyssa Thomas's skill set.

Is Tiffany Mitchell a strong three point shooter? No, but it bears repeating that Hiedeman largely was not guarded during swaths of last season, and particularly in the playoffs, like on either. Mitchell is more decisive, can flip into a quick hand-off, can attack off a drive and pull-up, or will keep the ball moving. It's not sexy on paper, but with respect to what the Sun do, it makes a lot of sense to me.

Out of 30 players who ran at least 5 pick and rolls per game last season, Mitchell ranked 11th in efficiency in the WNBA (Hiedeman 18th) per Synergy Sports. She's extremely effective taking off the dribble jumpers, 13th in off the dribble jumpers out of 43 players that took at least 2 per game. Hayes ranked highly in off the dribble efficiency last season, a notable part of Connecticut's late clock and halfcourt offense.

Again, while Mitchell doesn't bring that threat outside the arc, having it inside the arc is immense for this team.

She can really screen, which matters a TON in Connecticut.

I'll be curious to see how the Sun continue to approach the off-season, but this is an intriguing start for me that I really get and like for them and their team ethos. 

Pointing back to the Lynx, I think this is a really good opportunity for Hiedeman and a solid shot from the Lynx to generate some more steady point guard play. The Lynx work best with combo guards that can play on and off the ball, as Diamond Miller and Napheesa Collier are their primary creators. 

The Lynx play at a slower pace, finishing above 6th in the league in pace just once since Maya Moore's retirement. That suites Hiedeman well, as she thrives more using her handle to setup, being able to play East/West rather than straight downhill, and playing off of strong posts (very excited to see how she and Dorka Juhasz play off one another). Hiedeman has the track record as a shooter and I expect her to bounce back in that regard, rounding back up towards shooting closer to 40% from deep again.

With more size behind and around her, I think she could really shine in the areas she excels at defensively.

Both Hiedeman and Mitchell are in new environments that I feel will be better for them moving forward than they were this past season, and that's the beauty of finding a solid trade partner.