2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Race: Chet Holmgren Becoming Odds on Favorite
The 2024 NBA season is roughly past the quarter point, a blast with the in-season tournament taking the league by storm, continued high level play, and a stellar rookie class. Multiple players have stepped in and had an immediate impact, but two players have clearly separated themselves from the rest in the Rookie of the Year race.
Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren have tantalized as first year players. Both comfortably over 7 feet tall, but graceful with guard-like skills, reflexes, and basketball understanding, every few possessions from the pair feels like something new and impactful that you rarely see. We are going to be hearing their names for a long time to come.
How do their stats compare over the last 10 games?
Victor Wembanyama: 18 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 4.2 combined steals and blocks per game
- 48.8% trueshooting
- Taking 5 threes per game
- Getting to the free throw line 3.5 times per game
Chet Holmgren: 17.4 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 3.5 combined steals and blocks per game
- 59.2% trueshooting
- Taking 4.9 threes per game
- Getting to the free throw line 3.6 times per game
This time last month, per BetMGM Sportsbook, Wembanyama was the ROTY favorite with the shortest odds at +125. Holmgren had the second shortest odds (tied with Scoot Henderson) at +300 to win.
Now, Holmgren has overtaken Victor as the odds on favorite, at -150 at the time of writing. Wembanyama is at +100. The next closest player is Jaime Jaquez Jr. at +4000.
What’s led to the separation and Holmgren overtaking the odds on favorite?
It sounds simplistic, but context and environment has greatly impacted the Rookie of the Year race. Part of what makes the award, and most awards, difficult is that there is no set criteria to win it. When more and more odds get stacked against your favor, it becomes that much harder to overcome the barriers set in place to win an award when there’s stiff competition.
Structure
First and foremost, role and structure plays a huge part in this.
Oklahoma City is much further along in their process as a basketball team, undoubtedly a playoff team this season. They have more talent, they’re further developed, and the roster just makes sense. Chet slots in as a play finisher on offense who has a bit of freedom to play in the flow, attack closeouts, and handle a bit.
Defensively, the Thunder are amongst the best in the league, with long and versatile players at every spot in the rotation. Holmgren is masterful on that end and completes the group as a stalwart rim and paint protector.
Wembanyama brings a similar skill set defensively in an entirely different package. It’s worth noting that both players are legitimate stars on the defensive end. You could argue that Chet is more polished in technique, but then you can equally point out that Victor makes plays that quite literally no one else can or possibly ever has.
However, the Spurs lack that defensive structure and discipline that OKC has built the past few seasons in their core. It’s not a slight to Victor, but it just is.
That parlays as well offensively. San Antonio has made it clear that this season is about experimentation. They try quite literally everything with Wembanyama. He posts up. He comes off screens. He handles ball screens himself. He pushes the break off of defensive boards.
He doesn’t have the same kind of talent around him, and by virtue of having more offensive freedom while still being relatively young at the pro level, it doesn’t always look pretty. It takes time for consistency to come along, especially in a larger role.
Efficiency & Role
These awards are rarely given to the players that show the most in general, but to the players that show the most consistently. It’s worth noting that Wemby has a 29.8% usage rate whereas Chet is at 22%, a stark difference. The Spurs ask and need more of Victor offensively, and Chet has a more solidified and condensed role (although he still has freedom).
It’s not to say that Chet is better than Victor or vice versa, but the nature of the roles has played a huge part in efficiency. Chet is a vastly more efficient player at this point, and I think Victor’s efficiency would likely look much better in that similar role, but this isn’t a “what if” scenario.
Coupled with the current differential in how both teams are playing, San Antonio 3-17 and hasn’t won since their first game of November, and OKC currently has home court advantage in the West, it’s going to be interesting to see how this continues to trend.
Victor is certainly not out of the race, and with ¾’s of the season remaining, I would expect some improvements as the year continues. But, as it stands now, it feels like Chet has started to really grab the reins of this Rookie of the Year race based on how the award is typically voted upon.
Rookie of the Year Odds per BetMGM
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