Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Picks & Best Bets: NBA Game 4 Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends
- NBA Odds
The Minnesota Timberwolves will face the Denver Nuggets for Game 4 of their conference semifinals series on Sunday at Target Center, tipping off at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert are expected to lead the way for the Timberwolves, while the Nuggets have Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter.
We run 10,000 simulations of Sunday's NBA matchup using cutting-edge AI technology to determine the best Nuggets vs. Timberwolves bets, player props and predictions.
Based on these simulations, we predict that the Timberwolves will likely win with a projected final score of 105-101.
To get the best value from these predictions, we continually monitor the most favorable odds for each market. This means that the sportsbooks listed below are currently offering the biggest payouts for the plays identified.
Today's Nuggets vs. Timberwolves picks combine the power of AI, stats and analytics to produce NBA predictions that are free from the emotional biases typical of human-made picks.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game Information
- Playoffs Stage: Conference Semifinals Game 4
- Game Date: Sunday, May 12th, 2024
- Game Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Target Center
- Spread: Nuggets +3.5 / Timberwolves -3.5
- Moneyline: Nuggets +155 / Timberwolves -166
- Scoring Total: Over/Under 205 Points (-110/-110)
Nuggets +3.5 @ -105 via BetMGM
| Pick | Operator | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Nuggets +3.5 | BetMGM | -105 |
- According to our simulations, the Nuggets have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the Timberwolves have a probability of 48%.
- BetMGM offers odds of -105 for the Nuggets +3.5, providing a favorable 1.1% edge for them to cover.
Total Points Over 205 @ -110 via DraftKings Sportsbook
| Pick | Operator | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 205 | DraftKings Sportsbook | -110 |
- The over/under for total points scored is set at 205 at DraftKings Sportsbook, which offers the best odds for the over at -110.
- Our analysis shows a 53% probability of the 205-point total going over, providing an edge of 0.5%.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 4 Moneyline Odds
| Denver Nuggets | Minnesota Timberwolves |
|---|---|
| +155 via BetMGM | -166 via FanDuel Sportsbook |
The Timberwolves are favored to win this game, with our projections giving them a 62% chance of victory.
Even though the Timberwolves are favored to win, BetMGM offers +155 odds on the Nuggets moneyline, providing an edge of 0.9%. This makes it our recommended moneyline bet.
Our Player Prop Picks for Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 4
Here are the projected points, rebounds, assists and 3-pointers made by each team's leading players. We compare these projections with the odds and lines from sportsbooks to generate NBA player props for Sunday's Nuggets vs. Timberwolves matchup.
Denver Nuggets Prediction
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 31 | 14 | 12 | 1 |
| Jamal Murray | 24 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| Michael Porter | 19 | 8 | 2 | 3 |
| Aaron Gordon | 14 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 Assists (+104)
| Pick | Operator | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 Assists | FanDuel Sportsbook | +104 |
- Our top prop bet for the Nuggets is on Nikola Jokic to record over 8.5 assists.
- Our analysis projects him to put up 12 assists, giving us an edge of 19.1% on the +104 odds offered by FanDuel.
Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | 28 | 6 | 6 | 2 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 28 | 8 | 4 | 3 |
| Rudy Gobert | 16 | 12 | 2 | 0 |
| Naz Reid | 12 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Jaden McDaniels | 12 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 Points Scored (-110)
| Pick | Operator | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 Points Scored | BetMGM | -110 |
- Our best prop bet for the Timberwolves is on Karl-Anthony Towns to score over 19.5 points.
- Our analysis projects him to put up 28 points, giving us an edge of 12.1% on the -110 odds offered by BetMGM.
These NBA player props today are based purely on advanced modeling techniques that factor in variables including but not limited to past form and opponent trends, meaning you can trust that there is no bias that comes into play.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 4 Betting Trends
In addition to our NBA prop picks, we have compiled the best Nuggets vs. Timberwolves trends to enhance your research and betting strategy for this matchup.
Mike Conley Over 1.5 Total Turnovers
| Pick | Operator | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Conley Over 1.5 Turnovers | Bet365 | -160 |
Mike Conley has recorded more than 1.5 turnovers in 12 of his last 14 appearances (86% success rate). You can put money on him to record 2+ turnovers again at odds of -160 (62% implied probability), available at Bet365.
Mike Conley Over 3.5 Total Rebounds
| Pick | Operator | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Conley Over 3.5 Rebounds | DraftKings Sportsbook | +136 |
Mike Conley has had more than 3.5 rebounds in 9 of his last 12 appearances (75%). You can make a bet that he'll record over 3.5 rebounds again at odds of +136 (42%), available at DraftKings.
Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Total Rebounds
| Pick | Operator | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds | FanDuel Sportsbook | -136 |
Nikola Jokic has had more than 12.5 rebounds in 12 of his last 16 appearances (75%). You can bet on him to record over 12.5 rebounds again at odds of -134 (57%), available at FanDuel.
Conclusion
At BettingOdds.com, we're backing Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets to record over 8.5 assists, marking this with a projection of 12 assists as our top prop bet of the game. Additionally, we're betting on the Nuggets +3.5 to cover.
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