Red Sox vs. Marlins Picks & Best Bets 4th Jul 2024: MLB Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends

The Miami Marlins will go up against the Boston Red Sox in MLB action on Thursday at loanDepot park, starting at 1:10 p.m. ET.

We conducted 10,000 simulations of Thursday's MLB matchup using advanced AI technology to determine the best Red Sox vs. Marlins bets, player props and predictions.

According to our predictions, the Red Sox have a 57% chance of defeating the Marlins.

To get the best value from these predictions, we continuously source the most favorable odds for each market. This ensures that the sportsbooks listed below are currently offering the highest payouts for the plays identified.

Our Red Sox vs. Marlins Betting Picks & Predictions

Today's Red Sox vs. Marlins picks combine the power of AI, statistics and analytics to create MLB predictions that are free from the emotional biases often associated with human-made picks.

Red Sox vs. Marlins Game Information

• Game Date: Thursday, July 4th, 2024
• Game Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
• Location: loanDepot park
• Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 / Marlins +1.5
• Moneyline: Red Sox -155 / Marlins +136
• Scoring Total: Over/Under 8 Runs (-110/-102)

Marlins +1.5 @ -125 via BetMGM

• According to our simulations, the Marlins have a 57% chance of covering the run line, while the Red Sox have a probability of 43%.
• BetMGM offers odds of -125 for the Marlins +1.5, presenting a favorable 1.2% edge for them to cover.

Total Runs Over 8 @ -110 via BetMGM

• The over/under for total runs scored is set at 8 at BetMGM, which offers the best odds for the over at -110.
• Our analysis indicates a 51% likelihood of the 8-run total going over.

Red Sox vs. Marlins Moneyline Odds

The sportsbooks have released the moneyline odds for this matchup, with the Boston Red Sox at -155 via DraftKings Sportsbook, whilst the Miami Marlins are available at +136 with FanDuel Sportsbook.

According to the model, the Red Sox are favored to win this game, with our projections assigning them a 57% chance of coming out on top.

Although the Red Sox are more likely to win, FanDuel Sportsbook offers +136 odds on the Marlins moneyline, providing an edge of 1.1%. This makes it our recommended moneyline bet.

Our Player Prop Picks for Red Sox vs. Marlins

Here are the best MLB player props for Thursday's Red Sox vs. Marlins matchup.

Boston Red Sox Prediction - Nick Pivetta Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+110)

• Our top prop bet for the Red Sox is on Nick Pivetta to record over 1.5 walks allowed.
• Our analysis projects this prop to have a probability of 61.3%, providing an edge of 13.7% the +110 odds offered by BetMGM.

Miami Marlins Prediction - Xavier Edwards To Get a Hit (-175)

• Our best prop bet for the Marlins is on Xavier Edwards to get a hit.
• According to our analysis, this prop has a probability of 71.3%, giving us an edge of 7.7% on the -175 odds available at BetMGM.

These MLB player props today are based purely on advanced modeling techniques that factor in variables including but not limited to past form and opponent trends, meaning you can trust that there is no bias that comes into play.

Red Sox vs. Marlins Betting Trends

In addition to our MLB prop picks, we have sourced the best Red Sox vs. Marlins trends to enhance your research and betting strategy for this game.

Masataka Yoshida to Record an RBI

Masataka Yoshida has recorded at least one RBI in 4 of his last 11 games (36% of the time). You can wager on him to do it again at odds of +190 (34% implied probability), available at DraftKings.

Reese McGuire to Record an RBI

Reese McGuire has recorded at least one RBI in 4 of his last 12 games (33%). You can place a bet on him to record another one at odds of +230 (30%), also available at DraftKings.

Dominic Smith to Record an RBI

Dominic Smith has recorded at least one RBI in 9 of his last 25 games (36%). You can bet on him to record at least one RBI again at odds of +215 (32%), again available at DraftKings.

Conclusion

At BettingOdds.com, we're backing Nick Pivetta of the Red Sox to record over 1.5 walks allowed, with an edge of 13.7% marking this as our top prop bet of the game. Additionally, we're betting on the Marlins +1.5 to cover.

Beyond our Red Sox vs. Marlins predictions, we offer extensive MLB betting tools. These include the latest MLB odds for today and insightful MLB computer picks to elevate your betting game. Discover top picks with the best MLB bets today and dive into MLB sports journalists' insights. Plus, find the best odds and promotions with our guide to the best MLB betting sites.