Mets vs. Nationals Picks & Best Bets 4th Jul 2024: MLB Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends

The Washington Nationals will face the New York Mets in MLB action on Thursday at Nationals Park, starting at 11:05 a.m. ET.

We run 10,000 simulations of Thursday's MLB matchup using advanced AI technology to identify the best Mets vs. Nationals bets, player props and predictions.

Our predictions show that this game could go down to the wire, with both the Mets and Nationals having a 50% likelihood of winning.

To get the maximum value from these predictions, we constantly monitor the best odds for each market. This ensures that the sportsbooks listed below are currently offering the highest payouts for the plays identified.

Our Mets vs. Nationals Betting Picks & Predictions

Today's Mets vs. Nationals picks fuse the power of AI, statistics and analytics to produce MLB picks that are free from the emotional biases typical of human-made picks.

Mets vs. Nationals Game Information

• Game Date: Thursday, July 4th, 2024
• Game Time: 11:05 a.m. ET
• Location: Nationals Park
• Run Line: Mets -1.5 / Nationals +1.5
• Moneyline: Mets -110 / Nationals -106
• Scoring Total: Over/Under 9.5 Runs (-105/-115)

Nationals +1.5 @ -166 via DraftKings Sportsbook

• According to our simulations, the Nationals have a 61% chance of covering the run line, while the Mets have a probability of 39%.
• DraftKings Sportsbook offers the best odds for this bet at -166.

Total Runs Under 9.5 @ -115 via FanDuel Sportsbook

• The over/under for total runs scored is set at 9.5, with FanDuel Sportsbook offering the best odds for the under at -115.
• Our analysis suggests a 54% probability of the 9.5-run total staying under, providing an edge of 0.4%.

Mets vs. Nationals Moneyline Odds

The sportsbooks have released the moneyline odds for this matchup, with the New York Mets at -110 via BetMGM, whilst the Washington Nationals are available at -106 with FanDuel Sportsbook.

According to the model, the Mets are favored to win this game, with our projections giving them a 50% chance of prevailing.

With both teams projected to have a 50% chance of winning, it's the moneyline odds for the Nationals that present the best value. FanDuel Sportsbook's -106 odds make this our recommended moneyline bet.

Our Player Prop Picks for Mets vs. Nationals

Here are the best MLB player props for Thursday's Mets vs. Nationals matchup.

New York Mets Prediction - Harrison Bader To Get an RBI (+285)

• Our top prop bet for the Mets is on Harrison Bader to hit an RBI.
• Our analysis projects this prop to have a probability of 36.0%, giving us an edge of 10.1% the +285 odds offered by DraftKings.

Washington Nationals Prediction - Joey Meneses To Get a Hit (-250)

• Our best prop bet for the Nationals is on Joey Meneses to get a hit.
• According to our analysis, this prop has a probability of 77.4%, giving us an edge of 6.0% on the -250 odds available at BetMGM.

These MLB player props today are based purely on advanced modeling techniques that factor in variables including but not limited to past form and opponent trends, meaning you can trust that there is no bias that comes into play.

Mets vs. Nationals Betting Trends

In addition to our MLB prop picks, we have sourced the best Mets vs. Nationals trends to enhance your research and betting strategy for this game.

Lane Thomas to Record an RBI

Lane Thomas has recorded at least one RBI in 10 of his last 18 appearances (56% of the time). You can wager on him to do it again at odds of +160 (38% implied probability), available at DraftKings.

Harrison Bader to Record an RBI

Harrison Bader has recorded at least one RBI in 9 of his last 22 appearances (41%). You can place a wager on him to record another one at odds of +285 (26%), also available at DraftKings.

Conclusion

At BettingOdds.com, we're backing Harrison Bader of the Mets to get an RBI as our top prop bet of the game. Additionally, we are betting on the Nationals +1.5 to cover.

In addition to our Mets vs. Nationals predictions, we offer extensive MLB betting tools. These include the latest MLB odds and insightful MLB expert picks to elevate your betting game. Discover top picks with the MLB best bets today and dive into MLB sports journalists' insights. Plus, find the best odds and promotions with our guide to the best MLB betting sites.