WNBA Finals Game One Predictions: New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces 10/08/2023

The Las Vegas Aces look to embark on their final series required to repeat as WNBA Champs, and the New York Liberty look to play spoiler on Vegas' home court as they attempt to secure their first WNBA title.

Vegas swept the Dallas Wings in the semis, and the Liberty beat the Sun 3-1, giving the Aces a slight rest advantage heading into the championship series.

The Aces head into Sunday's matchup as a 5 point favorite over the Liberty per DraftKings Sportsbook. They're -205 favorites on the moneyline and the Liberty are +170 as the underdog. The scoring total is set at 172.5.

Here are three prop bets in addition to the regular betting odds.

Betnijah Laney Over/Under 4.5 Rebounds

Laney has been crucial for New York during their run to the Finals, arguably their most important piece given her defensive prowess and how vital she is as a scorer and connective playmaker.

She averaged 3.3 rebounds on the season, comfortably below the set line. However, she's averaging 5.2 rebounds per game in the playoffs with increased minutes as the Liberty have relied more on their starters.

Furthermore, Laney averaged 5.3 rebounds per game this regular season in 4 games against the Aces, the highest average she had in any season matchup.

Vegas has size in the frontcourt, but doesn't have a wing player who can necessarily match her blend of size, strength, and fluidity.

Prediction: Betnijah Laney Over 4.5 Rebounds (-110)

Sabrina Ionescu Over/Under 17.5 Points

Ionescu averaged 17 points on the season, and 16.3 points throughout the first two rounds of the postseason.

However, it's worth noting that her individual numbers and efficiency boosted from July onwards as the Liberty found their form as a team and gelled offensively. She scored single digits in New York's first outing against the Aces, back in June, but wound up averaging 21.3 points per game against Las Vegas on the season, her second highest regular season matchup average.

Part of that is certainly hot shooting, but her ability as a shooter on and off the ball along with her ability to get to the line was huge in attacking the Aces' switch heavy defensive scheme during their late season matchups. While she may not go off for a 30 point outburst, it feels likely that she breaks out over the average in game one.

Prediction: Sabrina Ionescu Over 17.5 Points (-110)

Aces Over/Under 88.5 Points

The Las Vegas Aces finished the regular season with the best offensive rating in WNBA history.

They've scored above 90 points in three of the last four games. 

While this Liberty defense is much improved, and was crucial in holding the Aces in check at points during the regular season, I expect game one to be a bit frenetic and a barnburner.

It's worth noting as well; every single matchup in the regular season had the team that won scoring 88 points or more (the winning team scored 94+ the other three times).

While the regular season isn't the full predictor of the playoffs, the Aces have home court, have been here before as the reigning champs, and I anticipate them taking game one. It feels reasonable that they will have the pace and firepower to crack over 88.5 points.

Prediction: Aces Over 88.5 Points (-115)