Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Predictions, Picks, and Odds 9/15/23

The WNBA Playoffs are in full swing, with the first round series’ tipping off this week including the first game of the 2 vs 7 seed series between the New York Liberty and Washington Mystics.

The pair last played in the final game of the regular season, won by the Mystics on a buzzer beater from guard Brittney Sykes, splitting the season series 2-2. Given how tight the pair of teams played one another this season, this looks to be one of if not the most anticipated first round matchup.

The Liberty are 9.5 point favorites, per FanDuel, with -520 odds on the moneyline. The Mystics have +370 moneyline odds to pull the upset. The scoring total is set at 162.5.

Prediction

The Liberty were actually outscored by the Mystics across their four games this season, the only opponent for New York that can lay claim to that. Other than the very first game of the season, an 80-64 win from Washington, each game has been decided by single digit points, including two games decided by one basket. 

Washington averaged their second highest points per game in regular season matchups against the Liberty this season (second only to their output against Atlanta). Point being; the Mystics offense, a unit that has struggled much of the season, is far more potent against the Liberty.

Why? Washington’s guard play.

New York’s defense has steadily improved as the year has gone on, rounding out as the 2nd best defensive unit in the league by the end of the season. However, they have routinely struggled to keep DC’s guard trio in check. How the Liberty game plan and look to take away some of the benefits that Washington’s guards bring to the table, particularly their ability to get into the paint, will be pivotal in deciding this game and series at large.

On the other hand, MVP hopeful Breanna Stewart has shot uncharacteristically from the field against the Mystics all season, 13.7% below her season average. That goes without saying that it’s a drastic dropoff. Elena Delle Donne has historically defended Stewart well, but it would be unreasonable to expect her to shoot below 33% from the field in this matchup.

The Liberty are playing exceptional basketball right now, but the Mystics are better against this team than the spread suggests.

Score Prediction: Liberty 88 Mystics 83

Players to Watch

While all three guards are huge in this matchup, Natasha Cloud is arguably the most important in this series. Her defense will be vital, but her ability to continue scoring at a high clip will be worth watching.

Cloud is phenomenal at getting into the paint and dishing the rock to open teammates; against the Liberty, she put together her best blend of playmaking and scoring, which is essential for her creating the best all around looks. Without question, her best scoring outings this season came against the Liberty. She shot nearly 8% better from the field, scored 5 more points, and got to the line more on average against the Liberty than her season baseline. If Washington is going to make things interesting, they need that trend to continue.

How to Watch

The New York Liberty will host the Washington Mystics at Barclays Arena on Friday September, 15th at 7:30pm EST. You can watch the game on ESPN2.