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US PGA Championship Picks: Tony Finau provides Betting Value

Tony Finau is a very interesting +3600 price to win the US PGA
Tony Finau is a very interesting +3600 price to win the US PGA
By J.N. Campbell

Our golf man J.N. Campbell has had a pretty good couple of weeks. With Abraham Ancer going close in the Wells Fargo and then Kyoung-Hoon Lee being his long shot to win the Byron Nelson coming in. He has a look at the US PGA and has a winner pick and some player props for you...

  • PROB
    %
Dustin Johnson
WIN PROB: 10%
Rory McIlroy
WIN PROB: 8%
Jon Rahm
WIN PROB: 8%
Bryson DeChambeau
WIN PROB: 7%
Brooks Koepka
WIN PROB: 6%
Justin Thomas
WIN PROB: 6%
Jordan Spieth
WIN PROB: 6%
Xander Schauffele
WIN PROB: 4%
Tyrrell Hatton
WIN PROB: 4%
Viktor Hovland
WIN PROB: 4%
Tommy Fleetwood
WIN PROB: 3%
Hideki Matsuyama
WIN PROB: 3%
Patrick Cantlay
WIN PROB: 3%
Joaquin Niemann
WIN PROB: 3%
Collin Morikawa
WIN PROB: 3%
Justin Rose
WIN PROB: 3%
Adam Scott
WIN PROB: 3%
Tony Finau
WIN PROB: 2%
Louis Oosthuizen
WIN PROB: 2%
Lee Westwood
WIN PROB: 2%
Patrick Reed
WIN PROB: 2%
Paul Casey
WIN PROB: 2%
Shane Lowry
WIN PROB: 2%
Jason Day
WIN PROB: 2%
Will Zalatoris
WIN PROB: 2%
Matthew Fitzpatrick
WIN PROB: 2%
Webb Simpson
WIN PROB: 2%
Scottie Scheffler
WIN PROB: 2%
Sergio Garcia
WIN PROB: 2%
Cameron Smith
WIN PROB: 2%
Daniel Berger
WIN PROB: 2%
Sungjae Im
WIN PROB: 2%
Abraham Ancer
WIN PROB: 2%
Harris English
WIN PROB: 1%
Corey Conners
WIN PROB: 1%
Henrik Stenson
WIN PROB: 1%
Francesco Molinari
WIN PROB: 1%
Robert Macintyre
WIN PROB: 1%
Si Woo Kim
WIN PROB: 1%
Alex Noren
WIN PROB: 1%
Martin Kaymer
WIN PROB: 1%
Marc Leishman
WIN PROB: 1%
Phil Mickelson
WIN PROB: 1%
Rickie Fowler
WIN PROB: 1%
Gary Woodland
WIN PROB: 1%
Bubba Watson
WIN PROB: 1%
Branden Grace
WIN PROB: 1%
Max Homa
WIN PROB: 1%
Thomas Pieters
WIN PROB: 1%
Matt Kuchar
WIN PROB: 1%
Matt Wallace
WIN PROB: 1%
Ian Poulter
WIN PROB: 1%
Brian Harman
WIN PROB: 1%
Victor Perez
WIN PROB: 1%
Danny Willett
WIN PROB: 1%
Bernd Wiesberger
WIN PROB: 1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
WIN PROB: 1%
Brendon Todd
WIN PROB: 1%
Tom Lewis
WIN PROB: 1%
Andrew Sullivan
WIN PROB: 1%
Keegan Bradley
WIN PROB: 1%
Kevin Kisner
WIN PROB: 1%
Padraig Harrington
WIN PROB: 1%
Charl Schwartzel
WIN PROB: 1%
Dylan Frittelli
WIN PROB: 1%
Byeong Hun An
WIN PROB: 1%
Erik Van Rooyen
WIN PROB: 1%
Jason Kokrak
WIN PROB: 1%
Stewart Cink
WIN PROB: 1%
Billy Horschel
WIN PROB: 1%
Zach Johnson
WIN PROB: 1%
Cameron Champ
WIN PROB: 1%
Ryan Palmer
WIN PROB: 0%
Matt Jones
WIN PROB: 0%
Charley Hoffman
WIN PROB: 0%
Kevin Na
WIN PROB: 0%
Emiliano Grillo
WIN PROB: 0%
Adam Hadwin
WIN PROB: 0%
Chez Reavie
WIN PROB: 0%
Jazz Janewattananond
WIN PROB: 0%
Aaron Wise
WIN PROB: 0%
Kurt Kitayama
WIN PROB: 0%
John Daly
WIN PROB: 0%
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Odds correct as of 2021-06-16 02:14 Odds subject to change.

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Dates: May 20-23

Site: Kiawah Island GC (Ocean Course)

Designed: Pete and Alice Dye, 1991

Length: 7,876 yards

Par: 72

Grass Type: Paspalum

Field: 156 players (20 PGA professionals)

Prize money: $11 Million in 2020 / Winner’s share: $1.98 million in 2020

Defending champion: Collin Morikawa

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Within the space of a year in 2020, we lost a pair of golf architects that helped to shape the 2nd half of the 20th century. Alice O’Neal and Pete Dye, who were married in 1950, will forever be inextricably “linked” to the revolution in course design that swept America. They met after Dye was stationed in North Carolina, serving out his enlistment as the greenskeeper on the base golf course at Fort Bragg. There, he got to know Donald Ross, one of the seminal “lights” of course design from the 1st few decades of the American Century. Can you imagine … Ross and Dye at Pinehurst No.2? What a nexus of design!

Taking inspiration from Ross’ naturalistic planning, the Dyes eventually scored commission after commission, working with some of the best in the business over the years. Jack Nicklaus, an impressive architect in his own right, credits Dye as his greatest influence when it comes to landscape planning for the game. In 1991, the Dyes came back to South Carolina and laid out the plans for what would become known as the “Ocean Course” at Kiawah Island. Part of what is now a golf mecca, comprising 7 different courses, this particular one was the scene of the infamous Ryder Cup (“The War by the Shore”), and also provided the backdrop for the film starring Will Smith and Matt Damon, The Legend of Bagger Vance.

The last time the PGA Championship, and its famed gargantuan Wannamaker Trophy visited Kiawah was in 2012. That year, Rory McIlroy shot a bogey-free -66, enroute to cementing his place among the golf legends, as he notched his 2nd of what has become 4 majors. Now, older and wiser, the Irishman returns to the place where he turned in a masterful performance. His is apparently clicking on all cylinders after notching his 1st victory of 2021 in the Wells Fargo Championship in Charlotte. See how his chances are shaping up below …

Last week, this golf-capper surveyed the field at the Byron Nelson in McKinney, Texas just outside of Dallas . . . Although my Texas boys of DeChambeau (“Win”), Spieth (“Top 5”), and Zalatoris (“Low Score”) did not hit . . . I really came out ahead with the selection of K.H. Lee. The Korean-born sharpshooter was “on” with his irons, and brought his putter, on the way to a -25 score! At 150/1, he was definitely the play of the weekend for me. I thought he had a great chance to make the weekend, and he did not disappoint earning his 1st PGA Tour victory, and punching that very last ticket to the PGA Championship. Well done, Mr. Lee!

Golf Odds

Here are some “prop” bets you might want to consider before this year’s PGA Championship tees off …

Cracking the Top Ten … (Jordan Spieth, +1800)

Age: 27

Country: United States

World ranking: 28

Worldwide victories: 15

Majors: Masters (2015), U.S. Open (2015), British Open (2017)

PGA Championship history: 8 appearances, 2 top 10s, best finish: Runner-up (2015)

Rationale: Jordan Spieth recently informed the media that he did in fact contract COVID-19 sometime after The Masters. Spending the next 3 weeks in quarantine would drive most absolutely bonkers, but knowing the work ethic of this Dallas-based golfer, he used the time wisely to prepare not only for the Byron Nelson (he shot an overall -18, tied for 9th), but for the trip to South Carolina. When Spieth is scrambling, he is simply the best of this generation, and he will need that skill on a Kiawah course that is unrelenting.

Winning the PGA Championship would complete the “Career Slam,” and make him a shoe-in down the road for World Golf Hall of Fame. Do not think that just because Spieth was struck down by the virus that he is incapable of rallying in this spot. His ability to sink 15 footers makes him extremely dangerous. I think this is the right moment for him to finally crack the Top Ten in this marquee major event.

 

Make the Weekend … (Abraham Ancer +4500)

Age: 30

Country: United States/Mexico

World ranking: 19

Worldwide victories: 1

Majors: None

PGA Championship history: 2 appearances, best finish T-16 (2019)

Rationale: I’ve been bullish on Abe Ancer for the past 2 months, and he has not disappointed with some fine finishes, week-in and week-out. The Wells Fargo Championship was a triumph as he made the weekend, then clawed his way up the board on Saturday, and into Sunday. Though he was not in the final group with McIlroy, he ended up at -9, just a shot off the lead. That was a nice payday for the young man who hails from South Texas, and continues to make a name for himself on the international stage.

The Presidents Cup will probably beckon once again in 2022 when he returns to Charlotte. His creative play is a weapon, and when I saw how he got up-and-down in the Snake Pit at the Valspar, I knew he was peaking at the proper time. Maybe his best comes on Par 3s, which can set him up nicely for a series of birdies, if he can get within a reasonable distance. Ancer is the real deal, and do not be surprised if he scores well enough in Kiawah to easily make the weekend.

 

Long shot Overlay to Win … (Tony Finau +3600)

Age: 31

Country: United States

World ranking: 14

Worldwide victories: 1

Majors: None

PGA Championship history: 6 appearances, 2 Top 10s

Rationale: Utah’s own Tony Finau is overdue . . . In other words, his time is coming because he has all of the tools at his disposal to become a major champion. His driving game off the tees is impressive, and when his mental approach is sound, he can be a formidable opponent. Though he lies just outside the inner circle of elite players, over the past 3 years he has made significant inroads when it comes to the rankings.

In the 2019 Masters, he was neck and neck with Tiger Woods and Francisco Molinari on Sunday, before landing tied-5th. Simply, making the Top Ten isn’t good enough anymore for this ball striker. Sometimes, you need to keep backing a “near-miss” type because, eventually, it can pay significant dividends.

I understand many are down on him right now (missing the cut in the Wells Fargo was a disappointment). However, I want to be there when Finau reaches the pedestal. It will come, and when it does, it is going to be a career-changing moment. Maybe what he needs to hone more so in this coming week is his soft touch around the greens. I like his chances, and his price is going to be magnificent, especially when you compare it to Rory McIlroy.  

 

Favorite Against to Win … (Rory McIlroy +1000)

Age: 32

Country: Northern Ireland

World ranking: 7

Worldwide victories: 27

Majors: PGA Championship (2012, 2014), U.S. Open (2011), British Open (2014)

PGA Championship history: 12 appearances, 2 victories

Rationale: He was 23 the last time he hoisted the Wannamaker Trophy at Kiawah Island. Much has transpired in the some 10-odd-years since. At the beginning of the new decade in 2010, it appeared that the “golf axis” would rotate between a series of titanic matches between Tiger Woods and the kid from Northern Ireland. It was thought by some to last for more than a decade. That didn’t happen . . . We have seen the Icarus-like fall of Tiger Woods, his brief resurgence at Augusta, but then a car crash that nearly ended the celebrated golfer’s career and life. Meanwhile, McIlroy has had his share of struggles.

Though he has made Ryder Cup Teams, and put in countless hours of work on his game, his ability to finish in majors has lacked the needed punch to get home. The last one he notched was back in 2014 when he led a Viking-esque charge against Phil Mickelson at Valhalla in Kentucky. Since then, there have certainly been some Tour victories, but little to write home about when it comes to classic wins. He had made changes with Pete Cowen, and sought the mental benefits from working with well-known sports psychologist Dr. Bob Rotella. Two weeks ago, he powered through the field in a wonderful display of the old “Rory” at the Wells Fargo Championship. He had that spring his step, and the swinging of the arms, like he was out for a brisk jaunt along the moors.

The question is can he take that momentum that he was able to grab in Charlotte, and channel that into his driving, iron play, and putting? I am not so sure. McIlroy is not up against the Tiger of old, but rather he is facing what all athletes must . . . the ticking of time. His odds at 8/1 or 10/1 just do not seem inviting enough, considering that this is a stacked field that will be going against a monster of a course. Pete and Alice may have designed a course with ocean views, but it will be unrelenting if McIlroy cannot strike the ball with pinpoint precision. He is a miss for me . . . Will he win another major championship? Unknown, at this point . . . Time will be the guide.

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Happy wagering on the 2nd major championship of the year from picturesque Kiawah Island! The Ocean Course beckons, and so do the odds!

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New customers,21+,T&Cs apply
Get a $500 risk free bet
New customer,21+,NJ Residents Only
100% first deposit bonus up to $250
21+,T&Cs apply,Only 1x Wager
Up to $600 risk-free first bet
New customers,21+,T&Cs apply
Up to $500 in bet credits
Up to $500 in Bet Credits for new customers . Make a min $10 deposit,place bets to deposit value,once they are settled,matched amount in Bet Credits available to use. Bet Credits risk excluded from returns. T&Cs apply.
Up to $1000 in 4 risk free bets
New Customers only,T&Cs apply,21+
$10 registration bet & $300 deposit match
New Customers Only,21+,T&Cs apply
Bet $50,get $50 (100% deposit match)
21+,T&Cs apply,Please gamble responsibly
Up to $250 risk free bet
21+,NJ residents,T&Cs apply
2 x $10 free bets & $250 risk free bet
21+,New Customers,T&Cs apply
Get $100 in free bets when you bet $20
Min $25 stake,New Plyrs,21+,T&Cs apply
Up to $500 back in free bets if you lose
New Customers Only,21+,T&Cs apply