3M Open 2021 Picks - Dustin Johnson is the bookies favorite
Our PGA Tour man JN Campbell passes on his prop bets as part of his preview for this week's 3M Open.
Course: TPC Twin Cities
Location: Blaine, MN
Date: July 22—25
Par: 71, Yardage: 7,481
Purse: $6.6M, Winner $1.15M
Fairways: Bentgrass w BG/Fescue; Greens: Bentgrass
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Introduction:
One of the newer members of the PGA Tour, this week’s 3M Open is pretty “sticky” when it comes to the field … It is the next tourney after a Major, and that could offer us watch and wager-types a bit of a letdown. Not this time! The field that is assembling includes World #2 (now) Dustin Johnson, followed by some shot-makers who can mix it up with the best of them. How about the always dangerous Patrick Reed (9)? How about Louis Oosthuizen (13), who is coming off a Top 5 performance at Royal St. George’s? Or even the underrated and streaky Tony Finau (17)? All should contend …
As for the course, strikers will face a fairly straightforward set of driving distances … nothing too challenging. Precision is still significant, but fairway bunkers are hardly an impediment (10 exist). The TPC opened in 2000 with much fanfare, especially since it was designed by golfing legend Arnold Palmer. Tom Lehman tossed in some updates not too long ago, and other sundry adjustments like more distance and sand were worthy alterations. This really affected the ability to “get up-and-down,” which will make pinpoint accuracy on approach shots very valuable.
Last week at The Open Championship we missed severely on Patrick Cantlay as his game imploded—cut. However, we were spot on when it came to choosing Jordan Spieth over Justin Thomas. The Texan couldn’t seal the win in the end, but he blew Thomas out of the water by finishing 2nd. Some pundits were disappointed in Spieth’s efforts in the Final Round, but he showed grit and determination. The past couple of years that hasn’t been there for the former Major Champion. Maybe this is the start of something brewing as we head towards the next stage of the FedEx Cup and the coming Ryder Cup.
Check out some of these wagering recommendations, as we try to get some winners!
3M Open Prop bets, aplenty …
DJ vs. Louey , low score comp … (Dustin Johnson, +700 vs. , Louis Oosthuizen, +1200)
One of the shortest prices on the board this week will most assuredly be Dustin Johnson. He continues to shoot well for the most part. As of Monday, he now sports the “No. 2” on the menu, which gives me a brief pause as I wonder if his game is truly up to scratch … After an 8th place ending at Royal St. George’s, he fell from No. 1 ... again. He and Jon Rahm continue to trade the top 2 spots. Up until a few weeks ago, he held the crown for 43 weeks straight. The South Carolinian just seems to falter at different points during a tourney, and I want to take advantage of those who think he is a “shoe-in” to score in the 3M.
I have always respected Louis Oosthuizen because he is competitive, even in the face of a Major. Last weekend at The Open, he actually led most of the way, firing some timely birdies … though it fell apart for the South African once again (finished tied-3rd), you have to think that he has the opportunity to continue this arc. Just when you underestimate him, he finds ways to fight back to contend. Matching “Louie” against “DJ” should make for some fireworks. You never know … Johnson isn’t impenetrable when it comes to missing cuts (though it has only happened in Majors this year). For my money, I think Oosthuizen can trump DJ, en route to a better finish. Odds are in our favor …
Long shot to play Saturday-Sunday … (Sangmoon Bae +60000)
Most bettors and pundits of the sport will not look favorably on this selection because when it comes to form, there is little pleasing to the eye. Sangmoon is trying to get his career back on track after serving in the South Korean military for two years, starting in 2015. The timing was poor, since he was going in an upward trajectory. Coming back to the scene of world golf, he’s tried over the past few years to get his game into shape, with little to write home about. Still, I think he has talent, and should make for an excellent play at the 3m Open. He garners a special invitation, and looking at his price, he should be a significant overlay. The way this course sets up is not overtly difficult, and I would like to think that his iron play (which is not too shabby) could be an excellent resource. If you are looking for a true “long shot” to make the weekend, then here is your guy!
Finau … For the Win … (Tony Finau +1600)
The Tony Finau supporters continue to evaporate each week because this golfer seems to break down at the most inopportune moments. Just when you think he has a major opportunity, it all falls flat. I am still a believer in Finau, and I have discussed this particular phenomenon with many bettors; the sort-of “stick with the horse that “brung” you angle” … Finau has talent in spades, and I want to be there when he finally breaks through. This past weekend in SE England, he turned in a capable finish, tied-15th. If some of his work on the backside had come through, I believe he could have done even better than he did. His 3rd round play seems to be his nemesis … I am not sure if that has to do with a lack of intensity, since he realizes that he officially has made it to Saturday … or what. Still, Finau can be stellar off-the-tee, and when he gets hot, he can be unstoppable. Coming to Minnesota, I think he can be a force to be reckoned with, and he has a chance to win this thing. He only needs 4 solid rounds … if he can do that, then he will be giving himself the best opportunity to notch a PGA Tour victory.
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Enjoy all the action from beautiful Minnesota! It is time for the 3M!
