The Point Guard Market Will Set the Tone of WNBA Free Agency

I recently got back into playing Civilization as a means of taking some breaks outside work, and after about 4 deep plays through since Christmas, I can't help but think about point guards and their importance in the WNBA. 

Oh! Happy free agency to all who celebrate! Expect a ton of analysis/articles coming my way here, this being the first.

As an aside, Civilization 6 is a jarring pick up point after last playing 3 heavily and Revolution, the port on Xbox 360. What do you mean I have to micromanage every single square of my city borders? It's a fun challenge, but a challenge nonetheless.

Every time I'm about to the Industrial Age, arguably the biggest differentiator between you and your competitors in game, I hit a wall. My nation is growing, thriving, productive, wealthy, popping culturally... but then I have no oil, aluminum, or coal anywhere to be found in my reach. Suddenly, I am behind after being two steps ahead for 300 turns. Welcome to the WNBA where point guards are the most scarce player type in the league with respect to importance to team construct.

If you want to be competitive and you don't have an above average point guard, good luck!

What makes an above average lead guard?

• Be able to settle an offense in the halfcourt and distribute the ball to where everyone gets to their spots most comfortably.
• Push the pace in transition when opportunities present themselves, but also create opportunities with your quickness of foot and mind.
• Attack the basket and draw the defense, putting the initial dent in a shell and moving the ball to create efficient offense regularly.
• Be a consistent threat off the ball as a shooter, cutter, and in secondary offensive flow.
• Be a deterrent on defense on the ball, provide value off of it: Get over screens, hang up in isolation, be aggressive, but avoid foul trouble.
• Find ways to be aggressive with the ball as a playmaker while keeping turnovers to a minimum.

There are a plethora of things that go into high level guard play, but these are the points I typically lay out and come back to. There are hundreds of pro level players that can do these things, and some of them very well; doing all of them at an average or above level is damned hard, and there are very few guards in the league that meet this criteria. The system you're running and surrounding talent can change the sliders for thresholds required to be effective, but largely the same ideals still hold up.

There is no analogy more apt to me than the Moneyball 5 tool player scene. It applies to the draft, development, and the players already past their rookie contract in the league.

You want and NEED those 5 tool players, but that's realistic for all but a handful of the teams in the W (although I think this is going to change in the coming years, but that is a future article).

Let's just run through the league right now to give a better picture of guard play as it stands before any signings have been made official.

• Atlanta: Aari McDonald has performed quite well in the WNBL, but unfortunately suffered a knee injury just before the New Year. She is expected back by the WNBL Finals.
• Chicago: The Sky play a different style with their bigs serving as key playmakers and a lot of simplified pick and roll reads that their trio of Courtney Williams, Marina Mabrey, and Kahleah Copper were effective out of. How will that change this season? Dana Evans has dominated in the Turkish League and EuroCup play this winter. I'm excited to see how new coach Teresa Weatherspoon and her staff prioritize her, because it feels like Evans is ready to take that step as a solidified starter.
• Connecticut: This team is a steady point guard away from legitimately challenging for the WNBA title. Can Ty Harris take another step and continue to become more aggressive and confident with the runway to do so?
• Dallas: Crystal Dangerfield was critical for Dallas at their best as a team, capable of playing on and off the ball, getting the Wings into their sets, and settling them in the halfcourt. However, her shot was still a bit inconsistent from deep and she was largely out of the rotation after the first game of the second round against Las Vegas.
• Indiana: Caitlin Clark with the #1 pick is the expected answer here, but that changes drastically if she chooses to go back to Iowa for a 5th year.
• Las Vegas: They have Chelsea Gray and Kelsey Plum!
• Los Angeles: The Sparks Cored Jordin Canada yesterday (TLDR: like a Franchise Tag in the NFL) and are likely to sign and trade her per ESPN's Andraya Carter.
• Minnesota: Lindsay Allen is an Unrestricted Free Agent, and did extremely positive things for the Lynx in a career year. She fits what Cheryl Reeve likes offensively, is careful with the ball, became a bit more aggressive as a scorer, but finding an upgrade at the starter spot should be a priority for this team while also retaining Allen to steady things off the bench.
• New York: Courtney Vandersloot had a tough end to the season, but she is absolutely meeting our criteria as one of the best true points in the W. She's on a Protected Veteran contract through the end of this coming season.
• Phoenix: Moriah Jefferson is on a Protected Veteran contract through the 2025 season, a quality starter.
• Seattle: Jade Melbourne is having a tremendous season for Canberra in the WNBL, averaging 18 points and 7 assists per game for the Capitals, also shooting much better from deep this season. I would expect her to factor in heavily for Seattle's point guard rotation, but is she ready to take that next step as a productive starter? If we're talking about competing right now (playoff level), I'm not sure.
• Washington: Natasha Cloud, starter at point for over 200 of her 248 career regular season games (all in DC), is a real possibility to leave DC in free agency and find a new home as an unrestricted free agent.

While noting that some things are up in the air, I'd slot it at 8 teams that are looking to upgrade at the point guard position.

This gets all the more interesting with the move made by the Sparks yesterday.

I've said this both in writing and on pods; the Sparks are THE most interesting team in free agency and the off-season as a whole. Getting the #2 pick in the lottery changed the calculus for them, at least in my eyes. 

The pathways and avenues shift when you can draft a talent like who is possibly going to be at 2 on draft day.

Speculation can be overdone, but that's also sort of the point with the Sparks. They can go in just about any direction under the sun while also holding the cards to shift the table in whichever why they hope to.

I was not surprised to see Canada cored, but I was surprised to see the report that she was likely to be traded. Do they have in mind who they'll draft at 2? Do they have a good feeling about Shaneice Swain (they drafted her 12th overall last Draft) and bringing her over this season; she missed the beginning of the WNBL season but is making her return to court soon. Making a trade with their draft capital and with Canada to bring in an established star is also on the table.

My point of view is that the Sparks are comfortable continuing their build, prioritizing development, infrastructure, and maintaining competitiveness along the way. This was a good team last year that really found their stride as a defensive grindhouse post-ASB. How they approach the off-season here on out will be fascinating to watch.

Skylar Diggins-Smith is undoubtedly the key player in the point guard market, but also free agency at large. She is THE player that can put a team over the top, push them to the next level, and bring a dynamism that no one in the league can at the guard spot. LA holding the cards to other teams being able to acquire Canada is an intriguing wrinkle. Cloud is capable of changing the dynamics for multiple teams.

The aforementioned Clark and Bueckers along with a select few other guards in the coming Draft provide interesting bets on upgrading at the guard spot depending on team confidence and scheme fit. 

While the first free agency signing of the 2024 Free Agency period is yet to take place, it's assured that the impact and jostling around finding a lead guard will be the most key storyline to follow in the coming weeks.