Peyton Watson: The Most Important Swing Player of the 2024 NBA Season

One of the harder, more underrated parts about being consistently good is that you need to be that much better at excelling on the margins. Who can you find in the late first? Is there and undervalued player to others that may fit well in your system with time? Can we find someone as an undrafted free agent that signs a smaller multi-year deal for guaranteed money that can contribute and grow?

The Denver Nuggets made one of the more divisive picks in recent memory, selecting UCLA one and done player Peyton Watson. Watson had struggled at UCLA, to put it bluntly: He didn't start a game for the Bruins, he only scored in double digits three times, he hit 7 threes the entire season, he was far from efficient, and he was in and out of the rotation throughout the season. To say the move was criticized as large would be an understatement.

What gets lost in the sauce is the impact of COVID, as a whole on basketball, but particularly on Watson's development. Watson played just a handful of games his Senior season at Long Beach Poly due to COVID and didn't play his final year of AAU between Junior and Senior year. While his season at UCLA was undoubtedly poor by any standard, the context is crucial in noting that he was drastically behind on basketball experience compared to many of his contemporaries, also noting that he came to a very good UCLA squad returning their entire starting lineup from the season prior.

Development and growth are fickle. There is no catch all or sweeping generalizations that can account for why players/people do or don't grow on and off the court. There are estimations, but again, context is king and crucial to understanding each individual.

Denver was in many ways, the perfect landing spot for Watson. They drafted Christian Braun in the mid-first, a player who contributed right away as a rotation player his rookie season, something they needed to round out their depth and cap sheet. A week and a half prior to the draft, they traded JaMychal Green, who had been a rotation player the past two years for the Nuggets, to OKC along with a future first (2027 pick later selected) for the 30th pick in 2022 from Oklahoma City as well as two future 2nd rounders.

And thus, Watson was a Nugget.

It's easy to look backwards now and go "wow what a great pick! How did this get panned," but it's worth remembering how the Nuggets went out in 2022, getting ousted by the Warriors in the first round. They were injured and severely depleted, but many expected the pick to be used on another immediate contributor who could round out the defense and athleticism of a core that needed it.

Drafting Watson was a longterm bet and investment, one that did not pay off during the title run (understandably!), but is paying off now.

Reggie Jackson is having a fantastic season off the bench for the Nuggets as their sixth man, but it's worth recognizing that Denver has gone all in on their drafted players; Braun, Watson, Julian Strawther, and Zeke Nnaji have been their primary bench players with some sprinkling of vets Justin Holiday and DeAndre Jordan. The two most played lineups by Denver are the starters and Jackson with the starters given that Murray has missed time: The starting lineup is one of the best 5 man units in basketball, outscoring teams by 19.4 points per 100 possessions per Cleaning the Glass. The starters with Jackson are still crisp, +9.7 pp/100.

The bench lineup with Jackson and the rookie scale players is the third most played lineup by the Nuggets, and they are bad, point blank. It's been such an interesting dichotomy to watch, a sink or swim in a sense from Michael Malone. 

"We need you and you are going to play; figure it out" is what it feels like watching that lineup play. I understand that the lineup and the -26.7 pp/100 point differential they hold (yes, you read that right) is jarring, but it's less about the lineup itself, and more about the components. We are not likely to see that lineup come playoff time. We ARE going to see some of those players have to produce when it matters most, and Watson has cemented himself in my mind, and with his play, as THE player from the bench group that can have the most impact on the Nuggets.

He's gone from a player who played sparingly, showing bright flashes with the rookiest of rookie moments in his NBA run last year, to a bona fide role player showing upside for more on a team with homecourt advantage. The evolution of his shot has been pivotal in allowing him to rep out some things in his off the dribble game.

Watson took 9 threes and made 4 of them across the first three games of the season, a positive sign to start the year. Yet, he missed the next 4 threes he took and then took just 9 threes the next 16 games. He was hesitant, he looked himself off, defenses didn't care that he was on the court, and point blank, he was a negative offensive player on the court. He logged 2 DNP's and saw a minutes decline because of it for the majority of November.

I have no idea what changed leading up to the holidays, but Watson's shot is just here now. He's taken 2 or more attempts from deep in all 11 of the last 13 games and has hit at a high rate. While the margins to thrive as a cutter and duck in player in an offense as a relative non-shooter are greater in Denver alongside the premier passer in the league, you still have to be a threat. Watson has room to improve, but is firmly entrenching himself as a threat and unlocking the rest of his game playing in the flow for the Nuggets, excelling as a cutter and starting to impress with more consistency as a driver.

Teams will still help off of him at the nail, but he's hitting enough threes to make you think. If he sees a back or wandering eyes, he finds the cutting angle and flies (he's 2nd on the Nuggets in dunks despite being 8th in minutes played). Opposition is starting to pay for stashing smaller/weaker defenders on Watson.

While Watson is still relatively poor around the rim, shooting 47.6% on layups, his functional strength and handle have been impressive to watch. He's tighter attacking with the ball and very difficult to get underneath, in turn making smaller guards an unfortunate barrier on his way to the free throw line; half of his total free throw attempts on the year have come over the last 13 games, a huge development for a Nuggets team that spends little time there (27th in FTA per game).

There's plenty of room to keep growing in how he reads the court, the decisiveness with which he attacks, and honing his skills. The point is that the Nuggets are already starting to hit a point where they're hovering above neutral with him on the court, a win in and of itself. Lately, they're starting to win his minutes well. 

The defense has been remarkably more consistent this year, fine tuning his ability to slide with most any guard for stretches, body up like-sized and some bigger forwards, and make plays with his length. The continual growth in consistency will continue to be huge, but again, it just bears repeating that Watson just turned 21 prior to the season.

Denver doesn't need another star, they just need versatility and options for the deeper waters. While Watson may not quite be ready for a deep run in the postseason, it's clear that he's making the strides to get there, which is exactly what the Nuggets coveted when they drafted him.